What should we do? Some thoughts on practical action.

Cartoon Barricades Grab (1)Ted Trainer

10.4.2019

To review, The Simpler Way Transition Theory article argued that:

  • The global predicament cannot be solved unless there is an enormous shift to a very different kind of society, one in which material living standards have been cut to around 10% of those in rich countries today.
  • This cannot be done unless there is radical change in ideas, values and dispositions, to happy acceptance of frugal, cooperative, self-governing communities, lifestyles and systems.
  • Thus, the key to the transition is radical change in “culture”. The world view driving humans must come to be about enjoying life in communities that are stable, collectivist, caring, socially planned and run via participatory democratic processes, and not acquisitive. Only movement in this direction can enable the required changes in the economy, political systems, international arrangements, finance, and the geography of settlements.

This task is so huge that its achievement is not likely. It involves contradicting and turning back some of the main values and ideas that have driven Western society for over two hundred years, especially to do with “progress” and the good life.  But we have no choice; we have to work hard at trying to increase the numbers who realize that the old “growth and affluence” path has to be abandoned and that a far better way exists.

The TSW: Transition document argues that our society is not capable of rationally facing up to its situation and implementing the required changes. We are likely to descend into a severe depression or worse. We have to hope that it will be a “Goldilocks” depression, not so savage as to destroy the prospects for restructuring but severe enough to get people to see that they must take the Simpler Way.

But regardless of how bad the coming time of troubles turns out to be, what we must focus on here and now is clear. It is working on how to raise awareness of the need to shift from the growth and affluence path to some kind of Simpler Way.

Following are thoughts on what this might mean for the practical actions ordinary people can take on. Much depends on one’s situation. Ideally there will be initiatives already underway nearby that one can join but the following discussion begins with situations in which a very few want to get something going where there are no existing projects.

1.     What to do at the Individual and Tiny Group Level.

By far the most important thing everyone can do is to constantly raise the issues:

Our most important strategy is simply talking. Take opportunities to mention the issues in everyday conversation. Watch for reference to something connected with global sustainability issues and move the conversation in our direction.

It can be a good idea to pick up on personal and family discontents and problems and concerns. Some possible trigger themes:

  • The struggle to get by; i.e. insecurity, fear of unemployment, small business failure, poor provision for old age, violence on the streets.
  • The fact that the pace is too fast, and large numbers of people are stressed and depressed. Most of that would be avoided in a society that allowed us to just produce as much as we need for comfort and that provided for everyone.
  • The fact that we work perhaps three times too hard. People complain about not having enough time.
  • The cost of housing, and the fact that many cannot expect to own a house.
  • Teenagers, the worries parents have, kids and computers, spending all that time in front of a screen, no social role or contribution for young people to make.
  • Kids and career; the problem of grinding up through schooling to get into a good career.
  • Urban restructuring and decay – what’s happening to our town? Overdevelopment, traffic congestion, high rise, the death of the high street and the country town – all taking place because neo-liberal doctrine says there must be freedom of enterprise, meaning that giant corporations can take all the business and destroy little shops and whole communities and drive urban sprawl.
  • The occurrence of unemployment, which is hugely damaging, avoidable and inexcusable.
  • Discontent with government; but governments cannot solve the problems consumer-capitalist society is generating, they can only “manage” them.
  • Social breakdown, drug addiction, homeless people, suicide, depression, domestic violence, eating disorders, insecurity on the streets, pub violence. These are largely consequences of a competitive individualistic society that dumps many who can’t compete against the fittest. A good society would provide for all, i.e., make sure all had a livelihood.

Have on hand literature and links that can be suggested, so that you don’t feel you have to have master the arguments yourself. You probably won’t see any effect but everything you say will help to get the issues on the public agenda that little bit more.

This area includes the opportunities some of us have to write, including letters to local papers. Watch for ways of connecting our messages to issues that pop up in the media.

Form a local group:

It is important to work with like-minded and supportive friends.  Invite a few people to a meeting to see if some would be interested in forming an occasional discussion group hoping to explore global issues and what these might mean for your locality. Members might undertake reading up on key topics and listing valuable material for others. Compile a collection of impressive facts and figures, and links to examples that can be used to send to contacts and to enable researching for your campaigns.

The group might give itself a name that can become known and attached to all its activities, such as “Towards a More Sustainable Smithtown”. Set it up as a website with the information and contacts, and in time the events list and invitations.

Think about possible things you can do in your locality:

One is to set up an information table in the centre of town or at the local market day backed by a big map that has restructured the town, digging up many roads and replacing them with gardens, animal pens, orchards, ponds, woodlots etc.  That will lead people to ask what on earth is going on, and then you can pounce.

Consider organizing occasional public meetings, inviting people to come and chat over concerns about their town and the wider economy and possible improvements. Offer short talks to local schools and clubs. It is obviously important not to scare the horses, so radical ideas might best be added in small doses, as themes some are saying we will eventually have to take seriously.

Explore the possibility of getting some things going among neighbours, such as planting public spaces with herbs and flowers, swapping and sharing surplus clothes etc., organizing a tool library, having a weekly community afternoon tea.

Organise occasional gatherings, picnics, visits to thriving backyard or community gardens, local hobby craft producers, recycling centres, film and discussion nights, guest speakers.

Of special importance at some stage is establishing community working bees, occasional at first but in time regular. These should mostly be intended to introduce some degree of local productive self-sufficiency, especially regarding food, leisure resources and “services”. When the community garden and workshop site is set up working bees will play a major role. Even if at first only a tiny group potters around conspicuously this will introduce the idea to the locality.  Passers by will ask about our sign.[1]

These activities assert the importance of community, commons and cooperation for the common good.  They visibly contradict the typical suburban ethos of private individuals looking after their own self-interest with no involvement in the locality.

Door knock “research”: 

Knock on the door and announce that you are from a group investigating the “progress” of the suburb etc.  See if people can be engaged in discussion, firstly so that you can get clearer about the way people are thinking and their potential interest in our themes, and secondly so that you can inform them about our world view and project. We can test ideas; what do they think of organising working bees to improve the neighbourhood. In the process leave a pamphlet and add some names to your email lists for invitations to later events. Later this approach can unearth resources we can start using; someone has a spare shed, a utility or tools they would lend, spare time.  Especially important will be using this approach to list people who know how to knit, bake a dinner, fix bikes, grow vegies and fruit, look after poultry or fish, do carpentry.  In time these people will be our “skill banks”, teaching others how to do these things.

It can be important to distinguish between people’s thoughts on social issues “out there”, and on their own situation.  There is a tendency for people to express considerable concern about their society, e.g., drugs, kids, homeless people, but to say that they themselves are doing OK.  Admitting to having problems or an unsatisfactory life can seem like admitting failure, so the best format could be “What do you think people around here would say about…”

Organise a sustainable alternatives tour:

We work on making various things that illustrate alternative ways, within each of our houses or back yards.  At Fred’s place we might make a mud brick dog kennel and an earth oven and put together a set of impressive pictures of earth building.  At Mary’s place we might build the chicken and rabbit pen, compost heap and gardens, and elaborate display boards explaining the scope for urban food production, nutrient recycling and footprint reduction.  Alice might have room for the diorama of the new suburban geography.  Tom’s garage workshop with sturdy furniture and toys all around might illustrate the joys of making things with hand tools.  Pat has a pantry stocked with preserves from her garden and that of friends and neighbours, enabling her to detail the monetary savings and the footprint implications.

In other words, we do not need much on the ground to be able to put on an interesting and informative tour.  That dog kennel and pictures enables us to drive home the enormous benefits of earth building; we don’t need to have a whole house to do that.  So, these items are the pretexts; the illustrative devices we use to explain in detail far beyond them.  We stack each site with lots of display boards, and we work out a sequence that will best present our world view convincingly.

We organise walking tours around these sites, followed by a picnic.  We get local teachers to bring their classes.  We develop and improve our presentation all the time, and before long we are hosting visits from other suburbs and making electronic versions of the tour available.

We door knock to find people who could help elaborate the tour, especially older people with skills such as  how to bake a dinner, knit, grow things, graft, produce fish, and do various arts and crafts, and who might have tools, bits of machinery and sheds that we can add to the tour. We invite them to join the venture.

Note the idea of not needing land or premises, because many things can be located in separate backyards and brought to the display days and lectures, or the tours can be taken around those backyards. A related theme is “gleaning”. Our entire neighbourhood orchard could be made up of a few lemon trees in Mary’s backyard, a few apples in Pete and Henry’s back yards, and we arrange to harvest the surpluses they can’t use and distribute them. The principle can apply to many other products, notably fish. We might help a family keen on fish farming to set up maybe a three cubic metre tank in their backyard (connected to aquaponic trays for producing greens from the nutrient rich waste water.) Neighbours can be on rosters to help with poultry, fish, rabbit etc. maintenance.

“Sniping”, picking off likely converts:

Keep an eye open for someone in an influential position, a columnist or talk-back radio personality, who might be persuaded to our view, and work on him/her over time.  Form a sub-group to frame an approach, organise letters of phone calls, and deal with responses.

Some important points to keep in mind in the early stages:

It all adds up, although you probably can’t see this happening.  Every time a Simpler Way message is delivered it reinforces the theme in someone’s mind, or someone is hearing it for the first time.  This is how the Berlin Wall was brought down! Extreme and surprising changes are usually the result of a long process of slowly accumulating rethinking and increasing desire for change, which can be invisible until the last minute, but when it reaches a critical level everything flips over.

We must be very patient and not expect to see much if anything for our efforts but be consoled by the probability that the few words we exchanged with the butcher this morning has added to the accumulating climate of opinion. The concern must be to just keep plodding away, seeing little for our efforts but knowing that we are contributing the crucial level of understanding and opinion, without which nothing can be achieved.

There is a great deal of discontent out there, and of recognition that the consumer-capitalist system is fundamentally unsatisfactory. Some surveys find that most people are worried about where we are heading, and even in the US support for some kind of “socialism” is considerable. No significant system change can possibly occur until and unless there is widespread desire for it and contributing to this is what most needs to be done. Our main task is to help people to see that there are very satisfactory alternatives.

What we are doing in these early stages is contributing to the development of a new mentality. Almost everyone lives in a suburb or town where individuals and families are focused on their own welfare or indeed survival, where there is no concept of community let alone cooperating with local people to work for the benefit of the community, and where all functions are left to some agency such as the council to attend to. There is no concept of people coming together to do important things for the community, let alone take some control over the way the locality functions.  The dominant orientation is about privacy and self-interest. This is not to blame people; this is just the way our society has been constructed. In an individualistic competitive society, you have to cope as a fairly isolated individual or family. But the sheer existence of our group asserts a totally different outlook and set of values. We are practicing and making visible activities intended to benefit our community, to build community and public spirit and empowerment.

One theme we should stress is that when one is contributing to the public good one is increasing one’s own welfare. We have to help people to see that the quality of their own life will be significantly improved if we make our neighbourhood or town better, work to fix neglected problems, beautify the landscape, get rid of homelessness, organize festivals and concerts. In the alternative society we are building it will be clear that individual wealth will be of little or no value; the richness of your life will depend on the quality of your community.

2.   Becoming more elaborate: From Community Gardens Towards Transition Towns.

Ideally the little group we formed to start doing these things eventually grows to become the Community Development Co-operative that builds and runs the new Economy B of our suburb. This gathers strength under/beside the normal market economy to do things that are necessary but neglected.  Over time the CDC will become the (thoroughly participatory) town “government”, with many committees, operations, community properties, and town meetings.[2]

If this revolution succeeds it will be via the Transition Towns movement, which has been growing impressively for two decades.  It is working towards the establishment of the kind of settlements that the new society must have, and it is providing us with the most effective devices for raising awareness about their existence and merits. So, it is of great importance for us to try to move our suburbs and towns in this direction.  Following is an indication of the steps that might be taken.

 Set up a community garden and workshop:

Even if only on a very small scale these quickly establish the capacity to grow and make many important things participants need.  While it might be decided to also enable individuals to garden their own private plots within the site, the central function must be to organise a cooperative venture in which people can work together to produce things they all need.  This enables working bees to get the site into shape and to share the thinking, the expertise and research, and the “work” and to share the produce.  It also means that if only one person knows how to grow good vegies, we can all have good vegies.

The garden should also have a basic workshop, where things can be made and repaired and useful materials recycled. Now we have the means to begin providing for those many people dumped by the conventional economy.  We make it possible for local people who are unemployed, homeless, convalescent or retired to join us in productive activity, working to start supplying vegetables, repairs, toys etc. for ourselves and each other. And the site is a friendly gathering place, where regular dinners and events can be held.

Here’s how the garden can be the beginning of our new monetary system, which will be a major element in our new economy. We record time inputs to the cooperative with a view to sharing output in proportion to these contributions. Thus, someone who can only come along occasionally can be part of the team.  This is a simple LETS system whereby we have created a new currency that like giving IOUs instead of dollars and keeping the number given for goods in balance with the number received for things you have “sold”.  So, we have started to “print” our own money, which enables economic activity, working, earning, spending, trading among people who have no normal money.

Every carrot we produce in the community garden represents a saving of scarce money that participants now do not have to spend at the supermarket.  More importantly we have begun to create livelihoods, purposes, community and cooperative skills, leisure resources, a cooperative climate – and a new economy.

What else can we do?

The CDC would then look for other activities to take up.  What else could we produce for ourselves, cooperatively and without much capital?  Bread is an obvious early possibility.  We could research and build an earth oven, buy a bag of flour, and organise a weekly bake-up to churn out stacks of irresistible hot bread, pizzas, pies, biscuits and cakes.  Baking day would then become the beginning of the weekly community working bee, business meeting, banquet and concert.

Of course, all the way we will be publicising and recruiting, knocking on doors to explain what’s going on and to invite people to join us.  Remember our primary objective is not to build things, it is to develop in people the consciousness that will lead them to see the desirability of a Simpler Way vision and eventually to support huge structural change.

Our working bees will make the benches, seats and shade houses, and landscape the garden and the workshop site.  We will find out who can play musical instruments, tell stories, act and sing, and we will then organises the first concert.  We will celebrate our productivity and power and take pride in the way we are providing for each other.  We are not just producing vegies and bread; we are creating solidarity and the satisfaction that comes from knowing we are creating a supportive community.

What about food processing, such as buying bulk fruit and bottling or drying, making juices, fruit wines and cider?  What then to do with the peelings?  Of course, feed them to the newly acquired rabbits and poultry, which we will locate in pens the working bees will build and which will become vegie patches when the animals have cleared them up and fertilized them.  The duck ponds will produce large volumes of rich sludge for the gardens.  We will plant the communal herb patches, fruit trees, and in time make the fish ponds and the sheds for the beekeeping equipment.  Meanwhile sub-groups will research all this and set up committees to look after the fish, rabbits, ducks, chickens, fruit trees, herb patches and bees.

We will organise to buy things in bulk, setting up sub-committees to find the best places to get flour, jars, nuts and bolts.  We will scrounge the treasure thrown out on council clean up days, to accumulate the wood and iron we can use in the workshop, and the bikes and appliances we can fix to use or sell.

It is difficult to understand why so few charitable agencies, especially churches, have not set up ventures like this. An inspiring example is The Homeless Garden Project based in California. The standard charitable organization confines itself to merely giving things to “disadvantaged” people, especially money so they can buy more from supermarkets.  Consider the typical old person’s “home” where expensive buildings and staff tend to people who have almost nothing to do all day, when they could be contributing to or at least observing a thriving mixed garden with animals and busy people right in their midst, while the institution’s food bill was being reduced.  It is no surprise that in Holland such gardens have been found to have beneficial effects on dementia sufferers.

After we get our operations at the garden and workshop site and in the backyards of participants under way, we can explore harnessing other resources in the neighbourhood and taking on other activities there. Are there sheds and trucks, tools, machinery and waste products we can get access to, especially bits of land on which we might plant commons? Are there spaces where we can put in small dams and ponds for water plants and fish, develop pits for clay and earth for building? Can we stack some areas with edible herbs? Can we arrange with councils how to get access to the vast amount of treasure that goes into waste tips, especially the building and craft materials, the appliances and bikes we can repair (eventually we will operate these salvage and recycling depots.)

Councils are likely to give us permission to do at least some planting and maintaining of small herb patches, bush tucker, bee hives, bamboos, fruit and nut groves and timber trees on public land. Much can be done without their approval or knowledge though. In some cities “green guerrillas” just plant on vacant land.

Sometimes our gardens can be located a long way away, for instance when we find a farmer willing to let us grow on his land, or become one of our contributors, or to set up a formal lease for one of our subgroups to establish our own mini-farm. Eventually our farms become leisure and holiday assets, enabling extremely low-cost outings and more lengthy stays.

Setting up small family firms and co-ops:

If the CDC’s bee keeping operation goes well, and Fred’s family really enjoys running it, we might set it up as a fairly independent mini-firm “leased” to Fred. Thus, the CDC is in a position to create firms and livelihoods. It can give people the satisfaction of running their own little enterprise, enjoying making a valued contribution to the community. Our power to do these things derives from the fact that we have working bees, community expertise, our own bank (below) and buying power. Our working bees can quickly build the sheds and rustic shop fronts. We would be keen to buy from Fred rather than the supermarket even if the cost was higher.

It should be apparent to all involved that the whole approach must be basically collectivist. Although small privately-owned firms might make up the biggest sector of the new economy, especially family businesses and farms, the project cannot be got going or kept in good shape unless it is guided by concern to work out and set up what is in the best interests of the town. Many crucial functions must be organised, planned, coordinated, monitored, regulated, revised etc. by the town. This could not happen in an economy made up of competing private firms. In conditions of serious scarcity that would quickly lead to a few most “efficient” winning and driving the rest out of business, and out of town, resulting before long in the deterioration of the town.

One problem here is that councils and other agencies have unnecessarily expensive standards, especially regarding house construction. For instance, their room sizes, ceiling heights, and materials rules help to make a house cost far more than it should. Councils also often have silly rules inhibiting the keeping of poultry and animals in suburban areas, recycling of grey water, food processing and cooperative projects. However, as the time of troubles impacts most of these rules will be swept away as everyone realises that it is essential to facilitate the maximum amount of local productive activity.

The significance of beginning our tiny CDC and the garden and the little productive enterprises and the working bees and commons cannot be exaggerated. To start doing these things even in the humblest way is to have begun to develop totally different economic, political, social, geographical and cultural systems. These activities, no matter how small in scale at first, contradict and spurn the acquisitiveness, competition, individualism, power, greed, affluence and growth that drive the normal economy. Just to have got the CDC going is to have put in place revolutionary new social forms. All that remains to be done is extend it to include the town, then the region, then.

Go out into the locality and start doing something for it:

It is symbolically important at some early stage for us to find some need in the locality that might not affect the CDC’s welfare but which we can act on. Maybe it’s assisting a youth group, or a struggling family, or some homeless people. This is our first step towards taking responsibility for and control over our town. We are not going to leave that problem to the officials, who aren’t dealing with it anyway. We will go over there and see what we can do about it. This is the stroppy attitude that will drive the new economy – this is our town and it’s our business what’s going on here and we want to know what problems there are around here so we can try to fix them. The suggestion here is that it would be good for us to take on a task of this kind early on, to assert that this is the kind of thing we are out to do, and to start getting the hang of such action and building our confidence about it.

This should be easy to do by connecting with existing volunteer and charity agencies, the churches, welfare agencies, aged people’s homes, Lions and Rotary service clubs, farmers markets, youth-off-the-street initiatives, indigenous groups, drug and alcohol rehabilitation, parole support, slow food, Men’s Shed movement. Many of these would be happy to have us help on the problems they are concerned about.

These projects out in the community will be powerful educational devices, enabling us to explain our world view to people. We will publicise the up-coming working bees and identify them not as owned by the CDC but as town events in which all are invited to contribute. It is probable that for a long time we will be regarded as somewhat curious and maybe misguided ignorable do-gooders. The challenge will be to hang in there for the long haul; people will slowly see the significance of what we are doing – as the robots take their jobs and the price of energy rises.

Market day:

We will set up a regular market day so that people can exchange their garden and craft produce with each other (mostly recording trades in our new currency) and sell surpluses to the townspeople. This will help to connect our new economy with the old one, earn us more normal money, and spread awareness of our project to more people. Our market will only sell important items, not trinkets, and only items made locally, not imports. Market day has very important social, political and educational functions. It gives us the opportunity to discuss issues and work towards consensus decisions about what is best for the project and the town.

Remember again: the most important work we are doing is not feeding ourselves or providing livelihoods or community.  It is educating the town, increasing the numbers who understand our perspective and who will join us; if not now, then when the global crunches begin to impact.  Nothing will be more effective in this campaign than real life visible activities whereby we can be seen practicing the new ways. In the middle of the garden will be that big map of the town as it could be restructured, with many streets converted to gardens and commons.

Leisure, entertainment, celebrations, festivals and culture:

A committee will focus on the possibilities for providing local and free entertainment, eventually including regular concerts, dances, visiting speakers, local artists willing to teach their skills, craft and produce shows, art galleries, discussion groups, book clubs, picnic days and festivals. Can we form a drama club, a comedy group, a choir, a gym display troupe?  After the Saturday morning market, we might have an afternoon working bee followed by a town meeting, games, evening meal, party and performances of some sort? What regular celebrations, rituals and festivals can be organised? Can we get a group to work on the local history, museum, culture and folklore? Eventually we will think about ways in which the town centre could be made into a more convivial space that will facilitate informal meeting, discussion and leisure activities? Of course, it is not that these are novel ideas. Many country towns are well aware of the importance of these sorts of activities and projects for cohesion and most councils engage in some of them.

Connecting with the normal/old town economy:

So far the discussion has been about starting to create a new economy operating beside or under the old one, mostly involving people excluded from the old one.  Right from the beginning this new Economy B can achieve miracles but there will be many things we can’t produce, and which can only be obtained from the old/normal economy. The wider economy has many things such as radios and bicycles and boots that we will want to use.  How then can we who have little or no normal money begin to trade with the normal economy?

The core and obvious point here is that we cannot get things from the old economy unless we can sell things to it.  The CDC therefore has to begin researching and consulting in order to find items that it can begin selling to firms in the old/normal economy.  A likely beginning point might be to trade vegetables, fish, fruit and poultry with the town restaurant in exchange for meals we can buy from it, using our currency.

The restaurant would be very happy to trade with us, because we represent a large amount of potential demand for meals which previously the restaurant was not able to sell.

Set up our own bank and business incubator:

In general, very little capital will be needed to get the new local economy going because the main enterprises are mostly humble and labour-intensive and do not need elaborate premises or expensive machinery. The CDC can organise campaigns to accumulate voluntary donations of capital for particularly important development projects. Some communities have low or zero interest town development accounts into which those who are willing and able deposit some of their savings because they wish to support desirable local development. On some communes only those who want to see a particular project undertaken contribute capital to it. The CDC can also operate voluntary taxation schemes.

However, the town or region should at some stage establish its own bank or credit union. Normal banks take our savings and lend some of them to corporations far away. Our town bank should have as one of its rules that the savings of local people will only be lent for projects within the region and that top priority will go to borrowers who intend to develop the town in desirable ways. Because the bank gives low or zero interest loans to worthwhile ventures and does not make the highest returns on all loans it will probably not be able to offer to its depositor’s interest rates as high as they could get from banks that are only concerned with making as much money as possible. Again, this is a price we will be willing to pay in order to make sure that (some of) our savings go into developments that will improve our town.  (Eventually, in a zero-growth economy, there will be no interest payments.) However, our bank will not be drained by outrageous executive salaries and bonuses or shareholder dividends, and you will have a say in its lending and investment decisions.  All its officers might be elected and unpaid volunteers. Our bank can “cross subsidise”, i.e., use income from loans to successful businesses to contribute to important operations that are struggling

Along with the bank we will form a business incubator, to give new little firms assistance with accounting and tax advice, access to computers, perhaps free or low rent premises, and especially expertise from our panel of the town’s most experienced business people.  Along with our bank this will put us in a powerful position to take more control over our own economic development.  We can set up the firms we want, even if they might not be profitable, create jobs and livelihoods, cut town imports, and reduce dependence on the global economy and on oil.

These institutions, the cooperatives, working bees, town banks and business incubators, and town meetings, give us the power to take control over the development of our town and its capacity to meet needs. We can begin to eliminate unemployment and poverty and homelessness in our town and provide livelihoods and security to all.  We have not waited for government or the economy to provide for us, we just got out there and did it for ourselves.  Do we have lonely old people or bored youth around here – well let’s just see what we can organise to get rid of or at least reduce these problems.

Much of this is simply organizing to connect existing but idle productive capacities, such as unemployed people, to existing unmet needs, such as the need those people have for incomes and goods. It is absurd that millions of people are idle when they could be “working” to produce some of the things they need. The CDC just organizes this.

The significance of this attitude could not be exaggerated. Although for a long time we might not have the capacity to exercise much control over anything important, that’s the goal we must be clearly determined to achieve from the start. So our orientation will not be centred on encouraging little entrepreneurs to set up, or households to take up gardening, or the town to plant an orchard within the old framework of individuals and groups functioning in a town that’s part of consumer-capitalist society and whose fate is mostly left to global market forces and officials from the council and the state. What we are about is gradually taking cooperative responsibility and control over our town and taking it out of consumer-capitalist society and running it to meet our needs.

The centrality of the commons:

Our community garden is the first of the many commons we will establish, community owned and run spaces, orchards, ponds, forests, sheds, businesses, buildings, housing, systems and services. The neoliberals have been determined to “privatize” anything publicly owned; they want everything to be the property of some private firm and operated to maximize profits for a few.  We are going to reverse that and eventually have landscapes that contain many productive arrangements which we own and run cooperatively for the public good. However, some of our property such as dwellings and little firms and farms could be run by cooperatives or leased as family businesses. Especially important will be community services as these often do not require much property, premises or capital. For instance, the Catalan Integral Cooperative runs various “welfare” services, including an employment agency which involves little more than volunteers.

Monitoring:

One of the many concerns of the CDC will be to develop (or find) good indices of important factors such as per capita ecological footprint, energy use, dependence on imports, the quality of life, and social cohesion and social wealth; e.g., how well the working bees and town meetings are attended, how many people feel excluded or stressed, how the old and the young are faring. Right from the earliest days some of these measures will be valuable educational devices, for example having a town footprint figure prominently displayed on the big noticeboard outside the garden.

Relations with the official town council:

Councils are strongly locked into thinking that progress can only mean more investment and sales and “development”, but they do make assistance available to “community development”, youth and aged groups etc. Our task is to see what resources we might be able to tap into without scaring them off by revealing too much about our ultimate aims. Especially important here is seeking land for the establishment of the community garden.

The foregoing discussion has assumed that we have had to do these things on our own, with no connection with or assistance from the local council.  But we should explore the extent to which they would be willing to assist us.  Some councils within the UK Transition Towns movement have been remarkable facilitators of local initiatives. Councils are in an especially powerful position with respect to their capacity to allocate funds, or, more importantly, to create new forms of money for our purposes.  For instance, it was explained above that by creating a LETS currency as a device for recording the contributions to the community garden we can enable employment and incomes among people who have no normal money and are otherwise idle. Similarly, a council can print some new money, use it to pay people to build a market place or tool library or community workshop or swimming pool, and allow people to pay their council rates in this currency. Thus, they can eventually get all the printed money back, and burn it if they wish. (Not all the necessary inputs can be paid for this way, but many can). Many socially desirable developments have been funded in ways like this.

One common mistake is where people buy new money with old money and use that to buy from participating stores. This creates no new economic activity, does not employ any idle people or build anything new. It is important to set up a system wherein the money can enable previously neglected needs to be met.

Again, it is unfortunate that councils have to attend primarily to town survival within the market economy, so they are under great pressure to enable more business turnover within the normal economy and they will be reluctant to provide scarce funds to assist us. They will tend to see the solution to the town’s problems in terms of cranking up more investment and sales. However, they will change their tune as conditions in the global economy deteriorate and their constituents start demanding more land for community gardens etc.

The research task:

There are many branches of academia concerned with the themes discussed above, and it is important that they should give more attention to research clarifying some of the crucial questions.  There is a great deal we need to know about the best technical ways to restructure settlements, what kinds of arrangements work best for the management of commons and the organization of working bees and town meetings, etc.

At present we have very little hard evidence on these kinds of questions. An impressive example is Lockyer’s (2017) study of the Dancing Rabbit eco-village in Missouri, which found that per capita figures for consumption of energy, travel, car ownership, garbage thrown out, and water use had been reduced to around 5 – 10% of the US national average –  while yielding a very high quality of life.  The study by Trainer, Malik and Lenzen (2018) found that the dollar and energy costs for eggs supplied via the normal commercial-industrial-supermarket path were around fifty to two hundred times those from backyard and local cooperatives. We need this kind of research to be able to convince people that alternative ways are highly effective for achieving sustainability goals.

But most important in the short run is research on how best to bring about change in ideas and values – that is, to increase awareness of and commitment to the Simpler Way perspective. We need studies concerned to find out what kinds of messages are most effective (e.g., scary or optimistic), what aspects of the new do people find least plausible or attractive, is the problem primarily about lack of awareness or lack of interest or lack of opportunity to go local?

Finally we need many groups in suburbs and towns to take on the project outlined above, working to establish a CDC and to build it towards a town-wide movement, keeping in close contact with each other to share experience and findings, so that we gradually work out what is the most effective way of transitioning a town.

References:

Lockyer, J., (2017), “Community, commons, and De-growth at Dancing Rabbit Ecovillage”, Political Ecology, 24, 519-542.

Remaking Settlements, thesimplerway.info/RemakingSettements.htm

The Catalan Integral Cooperative. thesimplerway.info/CATALAN.htm

Trainer, T., A. Malik and M. Lenzen, (In press), “Comparing the monetary, resource and      ecological costs of industrial and Simpler Way local production: Consider egg supply.”

[1] In the Remaking Settlements study (Trainer, 2019) it was pointed out that if all those old enough in the Sydney suburb of East Hills gave only one hour a week to community working bees then an area less than two km across would get 2,500 person hours of work done each week, equivalent to having 60+ full time Council workers constantly working to improve the suburb and running  many gardens, workshops, coops etc.

[2] A most impressive example of what a CDC can become is given by The Catalan Cooperative in Spain. See thesimplerway.info/CATALAN.htm.

Simpler Way Transition Theory

Cartoon Barricades Grab (1)Nowhere are the radical and coercive implications of the limits to growth more profound than with respect to the transition process. The Simpler Way argument is that the severity of the limits to affluence and growth mean the transition must be to far simpler lifestyles and systems than we have now, and that makes this revolution unlike any ever before.  It is different in its goals and in its means; it is not about an affluent industrialised society and its transition strategy does not focus on confronting the ruling class, taking state power or resorting to physical force. These are not options; they are unavoidable and necessary conditions. This revolution is primarily a cultural problem. The enormous changes in politics and the economy (and many other factors such as agriculture and settlement geography) can only be achieved after successful cultural revolution. Thus a very different “theory of revolution” is involved, one that contradicts conventional, Marxist and “green” views.

1.     The situation; the nature of the required transition

It is necessary to begin by being clear about the enormous magnitude of the sustainability and justice problem that we face.  The big global problems including resource depletion, environmental destruction, deprivation of the Third World, resource wars and deteriorating social cohesion, cannot be solved unless the amount of production and consumption going on is dramatically reduced. Present rich world levels of GDP per capita probably have to be cut by 90%.[1]

This can be done, while actually improving the quality of life, but only if there is willing acceptance of Simpler Way procedures and values.[2] But these contradict the deeply entrenched ideas and values of consumer-capitalist society.  There is no possibility of them becoming normal practice unless there is a massive and historically unprecedented widespread transition to an utterly different culture, one which is primarily collectivist not individualist, cooperative not competitive, and not interested in affluence or growth. It must be a culture of happy acceptance of frugal but sufficient lifestyles and of deriving life satisfaction from other than material wealth. Communities must be mostly small, highly self-sufficient and self-governing; they must be run by conscientious citizens who take delight and pride in their towns. These are not optional conditions; no social form other than mostly small, integrated and self-managing communities can provide high quality of life for all on very low resource use rates.[3]

The magnitude of the challenge could not be exaggerated. For two hundred years the fundamental goals in our society have been to do with increasing production, consumption and affluence. Progress has been the taken for granted expectation and it has been conceived in terms of increasing control over and exploitation of nature, more and more technical power, more complex systems, greater resource use, and constantly getting richer. Commitment to this vision is almost universal, and indubitable; there are hardly any people in political leadership, business or media who hold a contrary view, let alone the ordinary consumers of rich and poor societies.

This means that the required structural changes in society, such as getting rid of the growth economy, cannot be undertaken unless there has been widespread adoption of the radically new ideas, practices and values. The practical question thus set is, how might such a cultural transition come about?

The enormity and nature of the required changes reveals the inadequacy of typical “Green” and “Red/left” thinking about transition.  Most people concerned about the environment assume that the problems can be solved by more effort within the existing system… more recycling, electric cars, renewable energy, water tanks, better efficiency, more national parks, and more funds for conservation. This perspective fails to grasp that such efforts cannot curb impacts if growth in production and consumption goes on increasing.  Reforms to and within the existing system cannot solve the problems; the need is for a new system that does not create the problems.

Consumer-capitalist society cannot solve the problems.

The general assumption is that the problems can and will be solved by the institutions and processes of our present society, such as by parliaments implementing effective policies in line with international agreements to cut carbon emissions, and ordinary people accepting significant legislated adjustments in their circumstances. But this expectation is a major mistake; the institutions and political process of our society are not capable of rationally facing up to and making the enormous and disruptive changes required.

Consider the following points:

This society is even incapable of understanding what the essential problem is and what has to be done about it. The essential problem is the commitment to affluence and growth when the planet’s limited resources mean pursuit of that goal is now a recipe for disaster, but very few realize this and the supreme goal remains blind and fierce commitment to increasing production and consumption. The suicidal irrationality of this has been well understood for fifty years by many scientists and others who have documented the point in a now vast literature, but the mainstream, especially governments and general publics, have totally ignored this information.

This is a very strange phenomenon, occurring often through history. A society will staunchly and unthinkingly maintain cherished myths, assumptions, practices and values which an onlooker can see are problematic but which are not even thought about. Take for instance the acceptability of slavery, or pride in one’s empire, or in our times the fact that rich world affluence and comfort are built on the deprivation and exploitation of Third World people. Such realities do not enter consciousness and messages about them are ignored. We are dealing with a kind of collective feeble mindedness. A society so clever that it can put men on the moon does not have the wit to even see how it is destroying itself, let alone take effective action. It is not matter of intellect, it is to do with will, that is denial and refusal to consider, and its non-rational nature makes it intractable.

The enormity of the changes required. Even the de-growth literature fails to represent the magnitude and difficulty of the reductions required. Rich world rates of volumes of production and thus consumption of resources, must be cut by huge amounts, probably in the order of 90%. This means most of the present volume of industry, transport, travel, construction, shopping, exporting, investing etc. has to be phased out. How is this going to be done? It cannot be a matter of closing a mine and transferring the workers to some other jobs; because the amounts of work and jobs have to be cut dramatically. It has to involve totally new social structures and procedures, whereby most people can live well without producing much. This cannot be done in the present economy.

How for instance do you phase out the Australian coal industry, writing off a $56 billion annual income and relocating 55,000 workers. Where will the workers go? Again, they can’t be moved to other jobs, because the point of the exercise is to reduce production and therefore jobs. The present economy runs into serious trouble if growth in output slows, let alone stagnates, let alone falls a little; businesses go bankrupt and unemployment rises and political discontent surges and governments get thrown out. In this economy any reduction in production means people and towns get scrapped. A major force driving Australia to open more coal mines is the prospect of regional unemployment if they are not opened. A major force determining that far too much water continues to be taken from the Murray-Darling river system is the fact that any significant reduction means large numbers of farms and towns will cease to exist.

Even the de-growthers have not begun to think about what the answers here might be; they have not grasped the magnitude of the reductions required and they have not thought about what to do with the workers, towns, firms, capital, institutions etc. that will no longer be needed. They proceed as if somehow these people will go on living fairly normally, consuming energy and products more or less as before. What they fail to see is that the only way these huge puzzles could be solved is via the establishment of Simpler Way settlements.

There isn’t time. The major change required, keeping global temperature rise below 1.5 degrees C, must be made in a mere thirty years. Wind and solar sources now only provide about 2% of energy used and the world is not close to making a serious effort to curb emissions?

Consider therefore the required build rate for renewable energy. At present renewable sources supply 10% (i.e., 58 EJ) of world energy consumed. By 2050 global demand will probably be around 890 EJ (Minqi, 2019.), so we would have to build capacity to supply 832 EJ in 25 years, which is about 33.3 EJ/y. At present the world is increasing wind generating capacity by 53 GW each year (WWEA, 2018), which corresponds to 18.5 GW delivered after taking into account a 0.35 capacity factor for wind. That’s an annual increase of 162,498 GWh, or 584.5 PJ. To achieve the build rate, we’d need to install turbines at about 57 times the rate we are installing them now.  That is not going to be done. In 2017 wind investment was $104 billion (Frankfurt am Main, 2018), so the capital cost would be close to $6 trillion, around 8% of world GDP. To this we would have to add the cost of the equipment to store energy and to convert it to non-electrical forms that presently make up 80% of energy uses.

And what might be the turn-around time to stop the accelerating loss of insect, bird, marine, mammal, plant and reptile species? The present rate is alarming and accelerating, the beginning of a holocaust. It cannot be reversed and cut to an “acceptable” rate in 25 years.

We do not have political institutions capable of making changes of the magnitude required. They are fairly good at making small changes. Elections are usually won by small margins so governments cannot afford to irritate significant numbers of voters or they will be thrown out. They cannot adopt policies that go against the vital interests of various sectors, such as phasing out coal mining or returning 4,000 – 7,600 GL of water to the Murray-Darling (the scientists’ advice) compared with the present policy of returning only 2,750 GL.

This situation is exacerbated by the self-interested, competitive, individualistic ethos built into our culture and political system.  We refuse to share burdens. We are eager to dump them entirely on the groups who can’t avoid them.  If a venture or whole industry is to be phased out those workers lose their jobs and have to move and the firms have to close, inflicting immense monetary and psychological costs. Miserly compensation might be given but there is no interest in sharing all the costs equally among all people in the nation, who are to benefit by the restructuring. Is there any wonder why people fight so hard against restructuring and why it is so difficult for governments to get big changes through?

Of course, the greatest resistance to any De growth initiative would come from the owners of capital and those who serve them. Significant De growth means the elimination of many investments yielding them their great wealth. They own the media and the think tanks, and the politicians whose campaign funds they have so generously donated to. They have the power to move their factories overseas and thus devastate regions, currency values or trade balances if governments do not do what they want.

It is often asked, if we are so clever that we can solve difficult problems like getting men to the moon, how come we can’t solve problems like poverty and plastic pollution? The reason is that solutions to social problems typically impact on the interests of the rich and powerful and are blocked. Again, it’s about an unsatisfactory political system. Ours is not one in which we all sit down and work out the best option for all; it is one in which interest groups fight to get what suits them and disadvantages the rest.

But it is often said but Roosevelt did big things when he brought in the New Deal, and what about when the US restructured industry to fight WW2? For instance, the car industry was told to stop making cars and start making tanks. But this is an unsatisfactory argument because that situation was totally different. It did not involve eliminating jobs and profitable production, and there was widespread political support deriving from the war effort. Imagine trying to tell Boeing and Ford to stop producing aircraft and SUVs – and not start producing anything else.

Obviously no de-growth initiative could begin to be taken seriously unless a) alternative ways of existing could be pointed to for large numbers of people whose work in factories and offices will no longer be needed, and b) people saw these alternatives as attractive and would willingly, voluntarily opt for them.  These conditions are a million miles from where we are, or from the thinking of present governments or the economic establishment.

But couldn’t a wise and bold government force these kinds of De growth changes through, knowing that they are necessary if the planet is to be saved?  No, it couldn’t. How could a government committed to phasing out most of the economy get elected in the first place…while every elector is desperately hoping for more GDP and output and jobs and cheap products and higher incomes? And if it sneaked in by deception and then tried to De grow, how long would it last before the furious ruling class and masses lynched them?  The point is no step towards the required reconstruction could be taken unless and until there was more or less universal agreement with a plausible massive de-growth agenda. That is, nothing of significance can be done before the most enormous cultural revolution has taken place, and that is not on the official pre-2050 agenda.

It should therefore be glaringly obvious that this society is not going to solve the problems. It will be argued below that we could get through to a satisfactory situation, but it will not be via governments and publics rationally, deliberately analyzing the predicament, getting the right answers, facing up to the difficulties, adopting the right policies, and working hard to achieve them, accepting immense disruption, loss of privileges, restructuring and difficulties in the process.

Few if any realise this, least of all people on the left.

What can we learn from Marxist transition theory?

Much that helps us understand the situation; but unfortunately, not much that is useful to us for transition purposes. In fact, with respect to this revolution Marx points us in the wrong direction. Because most previous discussion of huge and radical social change has been more or less in Marxist terms it is necessary to devote some space to these here.

Marx’s analysis of capitalism and its contradictions, dynamics and fate are, in my view, of great importance; it’s his ideas on the transition process that are problematic. But first some of the helpful insights. Possibly the most important one is that capitalism has built into its foundations contradictions that will in time lead it to self-destruct. Automation provides a good example. The system’s relentless competitive dynamic drives capitalists towards automating their factories to avoid labour costs, but this reduces wages earned, and eventually no one will be able to afford to buy the factory’s products.

But the most serious self-destructive contradiction would seem to be that capitalism inevitably generates greater inequality.  A few now possess most of the world’s wealth while large numbers in even the richest countries are quite poor, are not seeing significant increase in their incomes and are increasingly victims of capital; e.g., in now having to take on heavy loans to purchase housing and to pay for tertiary education that used to be free.  Hence the rise of the discontent that has led to Brexit, Trump, right wing extremism and the French “Yellow vests”. Marx was correct in saying capitalism would lead to increasing immiseration followed by trouble (although his timing seems to have been a long way out.)

The declining purchasing power of the masses would seem to be the major cause of the decades long global slowdown we are in, and of the resulting rise of debt to astronomical levels (now about 2.5 times global GDP and certain to end soon in devastating collapse.) Other factors are tightening the noose, especially the increasing resource and ecological scarcities and costs dragging down profit and growth rates.

So, Marx helps by explaining how capitalism will be got rid of – namely, it will get rid of itself (although that does not mean there’s nothing for us to do.)

Now what aspects of transition strategy do Marxists and the general Left get wrong. Unfortunately, just about all of them. Firstly, they get the goal wrong. They have a long and unblemished record of striving to free the forces of production from the contradictions of the capitalist mode of production so that the throttles in the factories can be turned up enabling “…everyone to have a Mercedes.” Indeed Leigh Phillips (2014) and Greg Scharzar (2012) insist that socialism must embrace the Ecomodernist ultra tech-fix faith, saving the environment by moving agriculture to skyscraper greenhouses, adopting nuclear power, and boosting economic growth.

In addition, the standard “Marxist” model assumes means whereby the ruling class is overthrow by a determined vanguard party willing to use force. The goal is to take state power, in order to then bring about the necessary changes. In most if not all revolutionary movements in recent history this was probably the only option.  But the goal in those cases was basically to take control over the productive apparatus and then to run it more effectively and justly, getting rid of the contradictions previously impeding output. However, that can no longer be the goal. The goal now has to be reduce output and “living standards” and that goal cannot be achieved by the state. It is a cultural problem, not primarily an economic or redistributive problem. It has to involve largely dismantling the existing industrial, trade, agricultural financial etc. systems and replacing them with smaller and radically different systems. More importantly, it cannot be achieved unless people understand and willingly accept simpler lifestyles and systems. The state cannot give or enforce the world view, values or dispositions without which such structural changes cannot be made. No amount of subsidies or information or secret police can make villagers cooperate enthusiastically to plan and develop and run thriving local economies.

Perhaps the major fault in Marx’s view of transition was the complete failure to recognize the significance of this cultural factor. He saw transition solely as a matter of economics and power, of getting rid of the ruling class, of getting hold of state power and thus getting the capacity to force change through. As Avineri (1968) explains, he assumed that even after the state had been taken the masses would still hold the old capitalist world view, focused on better incomes, accepting bosses, accepting alienating work conditions, being disciplined workers, being individualistic and competitive, and wanting affluence. Marx assumed that these dispositions could be attended to much later, during the slow transition from “socialism” to “communism”. That might have made sense in a revolution involving violent takeover of industrial apparatus to be run by an authoritarian group intent on turning those throttles up, but it’s not relevant to our revolution.

“But”, at this point the Eco-socialist would surely insist, “if we had state power we could facilitate that change in consciousness, help people to see the need for localism etc..” Consider the monumental logical confusion in this response.  No government with the required policy platform, one focused on transition to simpler systems and lifestyles and decimating the GDP, could get elected – unless people in general had long before adopted the associated extremely new and radical world view. Yes, it is important to work for the election of such a government but that would have to focus on getting local economic and social initiatives going as a means to grass-roots consciousness change, and if that project succeeded to the point where the right kind of party got elected, again, the revolution would have already been won!  The essence of this revolution is in the cultural change, and if that is achieved then the taking of state power and the changes thereby enabled will best be seen as consequences of the revolution.

The role of force and power:

It is commonly assumed by people on the Left that radical system change will inevitably involve force, the exercise of power, and overt, intense and violent conflict, on the grounds that ruling classes do not voluntarily step aside but have to be pushed.  (This derives from Lenin rather than Marx.) However, from The Simpler Way perspective force and power have little or no relevance let alone value.

Consider again the logic of the situation.  Thriving local economies cannot come into existence unless people in general willingly adopt the new ways and make them work because they understand why such arrangements are necessary, and more importantly, because they want to live in those ways. The Simpler Way cannot work unless people in general find strong intrinsic values and rewards in living simply, cooperatively and self-sufficiently and living in the knowledge that only by following these values can they enable a satisfactory life for themselves and all others.  Force, power and confrontation can make no contribution to creating this state of mind, or to people gradually learning how to run autonomous local economies well. Communities that run themselves well as many Eco-villages do strive to avoid any notion of domination, of some having power over others. There must be a strong sense of equality among conscientious caring citizens. Similarly, it makes no sense to think about getting rid of the old system as a step that can be taken prior to or separately from building the new one that this revolution is about.

This rejection of resort to force, power or violence is argued by some of the best-known anarchists of the past, including Tolstoy and Kropotkin.  (Marshall, 1992.) If they had been given state power on a plate they would have turned away knowing that it is of no use. Kropotkin urged revolutionaries to simply get on with the task of developing within their communities the awareness that would enable and motivate self-government.  If people will not rise to the opportunity to take control of their own affairs this means, there is still a lot of consciousness-raising work to be done.

Must there be a long march through capitalism?

A significant strand in Marxist thinking has been the idea that according to the “laws of history” capitalism must mature before it dies or can be overthrown. This is why some Marxists have argued against revolutionary initiatives they see as premature.  (Warren, 1980.)

Marx’s views about the use of force connect with this. He thought that if there is resort to force to get people to go in the right direction then this shows that conditions are not yet ripe. This is the reasoning behind his criticism of the Jacobins in the French revolution and of the Paris Commune, although he was sympathetic to their goals. (Avineri 1968.) (The readiness of “Marxists” to resort to force is more accurately identified with Lenin than Marx; remember that Marx once said “I am not a Marxist.”) Simpler Way transition thinking aligns with this view, firstly in focusing on the prior need for (cultural) conditions and secondly on the uselessness of force.

However late in his life Marx appears to have flatly contradicted this “maturity”  thesis. His major claim to fame was to have discovered the “laws of history” whereby change follows a dialectical process culminating in overthrow of over-ripe capitalism and the shift to communist society. But in his last years he expressed sympathy for a possible way forward which does not involve waiting until capitalism has matured and been overthrown.  He toyed with the possibility that Russia, then far from being even a bourgeoise society, might go directly to socialism by adopting the existing model of the Mir, the traditional peasant collective village. (See Shannin,1995, Bideleux,1985, Bookchin, 1977, Buber, 1958, and Kitching,1989.) In addition, at the time of the revolution there had been widespread spontaneous establishment of Soviets or workers councils further enhancing the potential to carry out a direct transition to a post-capitalist and grass roots democratic socialist society. Ironically Marx might be blamed for this not happening because the idea was rejected by his staunch disciples Kautsky and the “Russian Marxists” who insisted on the need to wait for the “laws of history” to first produce capitalism in Russia and thus prepare the way for it to be overthrown.

The Simpler Way perspective obviously aligns with this direct and “here and now” view.  It sees the possibility that the new can be built within the old, as distinct from having to wait for it to mature and self-destruct, it focuses on the development of local autonomy rather than action at the centre, and it identifies ideas and values as the basic factors determining transition. By focusing on the task of building aspects of the post-revolutionary society here and now it embraces the Anarchist notion of “prefiguring” (See further below.)

The ultimate heresy; the working class will not be the agent of change:

The left has a fundamental faith in the importance and the role of the working class in the revolution. However, there are a number of reasons why it is not likely to lead the coming revolution. Unfortunately, the traditional class interests of “workers” in capitalist society do not align well with The Simpler Way.  They are about better conditions, bigger pay packets enabling increased consumption, more jobs and production, more trade, a greater role for the state in running things, redistribution of wealth and provision of better “welfare” by the state.  In general, the working class is strongly in favour of economic growth.

This revolution is not just or primarily about liberating the worker from capitalist conditions. It is about liberating all people from consumer-capitalist society, and all people not just the working class must be the revolutionary agents through their participation in the development of the emerging new local communities.

Hence the major tactical principle: Do not confront capitalism:

It is understandable that when faced by an oppressor it might seem necessary to confront it head-on and fight it strenuously.  The assumption is that we must get rid of the old before the new can be built (on the rubble). There are situations in which this is the appropriate response and it probably was in most if not all previous liberatory movements and revolutions. However, the historically unique situation we are now entering presents us with the need for a non-confrontational strategy, one that involves turning away and “ignoring capitalism to death.”

Capitalism cannot survive if people do not continue to purchase, consume and throw away at an accelerating rate.  The Simpler Way strategy (in the present early Stage 1 of the revolution; see below) is to gradually build the alternative practices and systems which will enable more and more people to move out of the mainstream, to spurn consumer society, and to secure more of their material and social needs from the alternative systems and sources emerging within their neighbourhoods and towns. People will come across to The Simpler Way because as the ecological and financial crises intensify and seriously disrupt supply to their supermarkets, they will increasingly come to realise that this is their best, indeed their only option.

The radical left is strongly inclined to dismiss this approach as naïve, on the grounds that the rich and powerful do not willingly give up their privileges. Yet this turning away strategy is now widespread, for instance among the large-scale Andean peasant movements, most notably the Zapatistas. (Appfel-Marglin, 1998, p. 39. See also Relocalise, 2009, Mies and Shiva, 1993,  Benholdt-Thompson and Mies, 1999, Korten, 1999, p. 262,  Rude, 1998, p. 53, Quinn, 1999, pp. 95, 137.)

The standard Marxist retort here is that the ruling class must be fought because if you begin to become a significant threat it will crush you.   But in the coming and unprecedented era of intense scarcity, will it be able to?  Mason (2003), Korowicz (2012), Morgan (2013), Kunstler (2005), Greer (2005), Bardi (2011) and Duncan (2013) are among those who discuss the multi-dimensional global breakdown likely to be brought on before long by limits and scarcity. This will reduce the power of ruling classes to maintain “order”, especially when the availability of liquid fuels will be one of the biggest problems, and when their opposition will not be striking and rioting workers that the army can be set on but a multitude of community gardeners spreading throughout towns and suburbs.

Progress in society and especially in science often takes the form not of decisive victory for one thesis in a set-piece battle but the fading away of its rivals. As Max Plank said, “Science progresses one funeral at a time”. This revolution is likely to come about mainly through desertion; as the old system increasingly fails to provide for material, social, security and spiritual needs people will (have to) flee to their local communities to try to get by.

This is not to say that the coming crises will see a Simpler Way emerge inevitably or peacefully.  On the contrary, the most likely outcome will be general and irretrievable planetary breakdown. The outcome will depend largely on the extent to which the alternative argued here comes to be accepted in the probably short time available before the time of troubles seriously impacts.

Interim summary:

The foregoing argument has been firstly that the problems are not going to be solved by rational action within or by the existing system; it is incapable of doing that.  Secondly this is a historically unique revolution, because its goals have to be to do with simplicity and stability, not affluence and growth. It is therefore essentially a cultural revolution; to focus on the economy and the state and power at this stage is a mistake. This unique situation makes most if not all previous transition theory largely irrelevant and useless, especially Marxist theory.

This sets the questions, how then will this revolution transpire, and what are the implications for strategy.

2.   What will happen?

The noose will tighten, hopefully slowly but probably too fast. We will soon enter a time of great and terminal troubles. Many factors are gathering momentum and interacting to increase our difficulties. The energy return on energy invested in getting energy is accelerating downwards, environmental deterioration is increasing many costs, notably from extremes of droughts and storms, land and water are becoming scarcer, refugee numbers are increasing, soils are being lost and poisoned, ore grades are falling, inequality is skyrocketing and reducing the purchasing power of the masses. About 500 million people are being fed by water pumped from deep wells by petrol engines. The same number are being fed by artificially produced and energy-intensive nitrogen fertilizers. Two to three billion live on the waters coming down from the Tibetan plateau, and the glaciers are drying up. About one-third of our food requires insect pollinators, and a sudden plunge in insect numbers seems to have begun. And now the robots are poised to attack. They will throw large numbers of workers into unemployment, meaning far fewer pay packets to sustain demand. Many analysts have tried to draw attention to where these limits are heading. Mason (2003) for instance thinks the many problematic trends will culminate in “The 2030 Spike”, the title of his book. The likely trajectory is to a sudden catastrophic break down of the global economy, quite conceivably involving the mass die off of population.

It clear that even now before most of the above impacts have hit the global economy is in trouble. Profit rates have been falling, interest rates have been lowered almost to zero in a futile effort to kick start the economy, and the wheels have been kept turning primarily by taking out and “spending” astronomical amounts of debt. Collins (2019) points out that the economy has shifted into a “catabolic” or “cannibalistic” phase.  As the capacity to do good business producing and selling useful things deteriorates, investors turn to activities that plunder the economy. It is as if a hardware firm starts selling its own roofing iron.  The illicit drug industry and the Mafia are similar; rather than producing new wealth the owners of capital turn to ways of extracting previously produced wealth.

Much financial activity is of this nature, such as “short selling” and “asset stripping”. In the GFC a lot of money was lent to home buyers clearly incapable of meeting the repayments, because investors could not find less risky outlets. When the borrowers could not pay their interest instalments their houses were repossessed by the banks and sold off, (transferring more asset wealth to the rich.) Similarly, in the US some of the money in the worker’s pay packet is put into a company pension fund to be paid out to him when he retires, but many corporations have taken these funds to invest, and “lost” them. Often, they have been lent to smart operators in the financial sector to put into speculative ventures, siphoning out fees in the process. Sometimes money is borrowed to buy weak firms, arrange for them to borrow too much and thus drive them into bankruptcy, and then sell them off.  Because the pension money has become an asset of the firm it was invested in it goes to the purchaser of the firm and is lost to the workers who had set it aside for their retirement. So, accumulation and profit making are being kept up by activities which enrich big and smart investors (lenders) by getting hold of the wealth of little/naive investors (borrowers), through granting them loans they cannot repay.

A common mechanism is simply commercialising activities that the state once carried out without charge. A good example is where students must now pay for college and university education which used to be free, meaning large loans must be taken out, and large interest payments flow to lenders from the earnings of students and their parents. Again, the process does not involve lending capital to produce anything new, it just enables wealth previously produced by those parents to be acquired by lenders. Collins and others see this process accelerating as the ever-increasing volumes of accumulated capital find it increasingly difficult to find investment opportunities in producing anything of value. This cannibalism, the system having to feed off itself, is a sure sign that it has entered a death spiral.

But there are two more immediate factors that will be the most important determinants or our fate. The first is the peaking of petroleum supply. Output from many fields is dwindling, as is the total supply of conventional petroleum. The capacity of most of the Middle East suppliers to export oil is likely to decline markedly within a decade. This is firstly because of deteriorating production rates but more importantly because their worsening ecological conditions mean they are having to use more and more of the oil they produce. Ahmed (2017) details the situation; rapid population growth along with climate change, temperature rise, dwindling water and agricultural capacities are creating conflicts, refugees and discontent with governments, which cannot cope. Discontent rises so governments crack down on protest, which fuels the anger and further undermines capacity to keep order. Hence many failed states are on the agenda. Ahmed argues persuasively that for these reasons our capacity to get oil from the Middle East could dry up within a decade.

“But what about fracking? Hasn’t it saved us?” It now seems very likely that within ten years fracking will blow out.  Even by 2019 almost none of the firms involved had ever made a profit; in fact, the industry has run up an extremely large debt. Thus, the remarkable surge in oil supply from this source has been made possible only by the willingness of investors to gamble on the hope that before long it will yield big profits; that is the supply has been paid for by the accumulation of huge debt.

The relation between oil availability and price on the one hand and the “health” of the economy is turning out to be complex.  It is not simply that as oil becomes scarcer its price rises and the economy goes into recession. In recent years the price has at times been very low. Tverberg and others have argued that as price rises it increases the costs of goods and in a world where there is extreme inequality many people are forced to cut back on their purchasing, bringing on recession … and a fall in the demand for and price of petroleum. In other words, an underlying trend to greater scarcity and cost can actually result in a dramatic fall in oil price, due to falling capacity to purchase.  Thus some say we are in for “… a bumpy road down” as price and GDP oscillate.

But there is a second extremely important determinant of our fate; the global debt, now standing at over $250 trillion, more than three times total global annual GDP and far higher than before the first GFC. That is a bubble that must soon bust. Debt is lending undertaken on the expectation that borrowers will use the loans to create enough sales to pay back the loans plus interest, and this cannot be done unless there is significant economic growth. But there is little growth now and a point in time will come when lenders cease to believe they are going to get their loans paid off, they will suddenly panic and rush to get their money back, bankrupting borrowers and seizing their assets, leading at least to sudden deep economic depression.

The coming mother of all crashes might not be the last; there might be a spluttering recovery of sorts slowly setting us up for the next mega-crash. But we are inevitably in for a smooth or bumpy or catastrophic descent into terminal global breakdown. Remember that capital has been accumulating for a long time and at an ever-increasing rate. There is now an astronomical amount of it desperately seeking profitable investment outlets, while galloping inequality is cutting down the capacity of the masses to purchase and therefore inhibiting growth of investment outlets. Meanwhile resource and environmental costs are cutting into profit rates and raising prices, thus further reducing capacity to purchase. Given how fragile the global economy is and how dependent it is on trust in its financial system (e.g., exporters will not dispatch if they fear payment will not be received via the banking system), a more or less instantaneous seizing up of the global economy is highly likely. (This is explained at length by Mason (2003), Korowicz (2012), Morgan (2013), Kunstler (2005), Greer 2005, Bardi, and Duncan (2013.)

Unfortunately, the situation will be chaotic and confused. It will not be clearly understood. There will be anger, blame, scapegoating, recriminations and attacks on the wrong targets. Class, racial and national tensions and conflicts will be fueled and groups will scramble to defend their threatened interests.  The middle class will be willing to see the state take coercive powers and reduce civil liberties to maintain “order” and protect their property and privileges. Trade wars and protectionism will flourish. The intense interest in looking for someone to blame will lead immigrants and foreigners to be accused of “taking our jobs.” There will be a surge in readiness to call for strong leadership, ruthless if necessary. The climate will weigh heavily against quite, sober, rational cooperative reflection on what is going wrong and what needs to be done. The situation will be ripe for fascist regimes to emerge, or for descent even further to rule by local war lords.

What we have to hope for is a Goldilocks depression, one that is not catastrophically disruptive but is savage enough to jolt people into realizing that the system is irretrievably broken and can never be restored, and that their only hope is to organize cooperative local economies as fast as they can, and to accept very frugal ways.

At least some people will do this. Indeed, it is possible that most ordinary people will realize that they must work out what they can do in their neighbourhoods to collectively provide as much as possible for themselves.   Their circumstances will make it obvious that they must cooperate and work out how to convert their living places into gardens, workshops, co-ops, orchards etc. Surely they will see that they must set up committees and working bees and town meetings to sort out what to do. Most important will be the enforced shift in mentality, from being passive recipients of government, accepting rule by distant officials, to collectively taking control of their own fate. Similarly, there will be a rapid shift in expectations; people will realise that they cannot have their old resource-squandering self-indulgent affluence back. They will see that they will have to be content with what is sufficient and would have to cooperate and prioritise the common good, not compete as individuals for selfish goals. (Ironically it is very likely that the experienced community and quality of life will immediately improve.) Things like this are already happening where Neoliberalism has had its most destructive effects, for instance in Detroit and in Greece.

The heroic pre-figurers.

The chances of the right things being done have been greatly increased over the last three decades by the emergence of the Eco-village and Transition Towns movements.  There are now thousands of people living in highly self-sufficient intentional communities and involved in efforts to make their towns more self-sufficient, cooperative and self-governing. This practical phenomenon is being accompanied by a large literature elaborating the intellectual case for local alternatives.

In my view some of the initiatives are quite mistaken, for example regarding the kind of alternative currencies being adopted, and the general reluctance/refusal to think about transition strategy (Trainer, 2010, 2018), but the historical significance of the emergence of these ventures would be difficult to exaggerate.  Probably for the first time in history we are seeing the rapid spread of a “utopian” practice, mostly among ordinary people in rich and poor regions. A remarkable example is provided by the Catalan Integral Cooperative involving thousands of people in activities explicitly designed not to have anything to do with the market or the state.[4] In the Third World many more are involved in developments such as the Via Campesino peasant movement. The government of Senegal has the goal of transforming 1,400 villages into Eco-Villages. (St Onge, 2014.)

This scene provides us with the answer to the general question of transition strategy.  What is to be done?  The answer is, build Eco-villages and Transition Towns.  This is the Anarchist principle of “pre-figuring”; that is, work on establishing the new systems here and now within the old. Don’t wait until the old system has been swept away and don’t prioritise fighting head-on against it. (Rai, 1995, p. 99, Pepper, 1996, pp. 36, 305, Bookchin, 1980, p. 263.)

This increases the resilience of towns and suburbs to cope with the coming time of troubles. It is also to take up the R and D task. It will take a lot of time and effort to work out the systems, arrangements, geographies (where to put what kinds of community gardens) that suit the probably unique conditions within each individual town. More importantly it will take time and trial and error to work out the social and political arrangements that work best – i.e. what committees, what town meeting procedures, what working bees, what expectations and rules? And we need time to accumulate and spread ides and findings so that new town initiatives can quickly benefit from the pioneering experience.

Note again, the state cannot do these things. It can facilitate them, but only to the extent that the new world view and goals have become sufficiently widespread to make the state move in these directions.

The point of pre-figuring can easily be misunderstood. It is not primarily to increase the number of post-revolutionary ways that exist, and the assumption is not that just setting up post-revolutionary arrangements one by one will lead to these eventually having replaced consumer-capitalist ways. The main point is educational/ideological.  By becoming involved in the many emerging local initiatives activists are likely to be in the most effective position to acquaint participants and onlookers with the Simpler Way perspective, and with the need to eventually go on from the present localist preoccupations to the more distant Stage 2 problem of dealing with growth, the state, the market and the capitalist system. (See further below.) The point is in other words, cultural and educational. By establishing small examples of the radical new arrangements before society deteriorates, we will best be able to get people to see the desirability of those ways, and to see the need to abandon conventional ideas, systems and values.  Only when there is widespread acceptance of the new worldview will it be possible to make changes at the level of the state and the national and global economies.

Thus, in this revolution it is necessary to think in terms of two stages. The focal concern in the present Stage 1 is slowly building in our towns an “Economy B” under the old economy, whereby people can devote local productive capacities to collectively meeting as many local needs as possible.  The crucial sub-goal here is increasing the extent to which citizens take control of their town, as distinct from allowing their fate to be determined by distant politicians, bureaucrats, market forces and corporations.

Stage 2 of the revolution.

Following is a brief indication of how the latter stages of the revolution might eventuate, if we are lucky and if we work hard at it.

As local economies become more widespread and elaborate and as the global economy falters it will become increasingly obvious that scarce national resources must be deliberately and rationally devoted to the production of basic necessities, as distinct from being left for market forces to allocate to the most profitable purposes. There will always be items that towns cannot produce for themselves. Most of these can come from surrounding regions, including grain and dairy produce, tools and light machinery, materials, appliances, glass and irrigation equipment (although the Remaking Settlements study finds that surprisingly little would need to be imported from further afield.) However, some will have to come from more distant steel and cement works. It will therefore be necessary for all towns and regions to be able to import these few but crucial items from the national economy, and to be able to produce some of them to export into it.

These conditions will generate the pressure that in time will force states to carry out revolutionary change in national economies. People will become acutely aware that scarce national resources must not be wasted and must be devoted to providing settlements and regions with the crucial materials and manufactures they cannot produce for themselves. This will require planning to distribute to all towns the opportunity to produce and export some few items, so that they can pay for their importation of those few they need. There will also be tasks and functions that must be planned and administered from the centre, such as allocating water use throughout a river basin, and facilitating the movement of workers from moribund industries to new ones again bearing in mind that the total volume of producing going on will have to be cut to a small fraction of the present amount.

Thus, the survival imperatives emanating from the grass roots will force central governments to greatly increase intervention, planning, regulation and restructuring. It might at first sight seem that this means the emergence of or need for greatly increased state power.  On the contrary it is likely to be a process whereby power is taken away from the centre, and whereby citizens exercise increasing control over central governments, via their town assemblies. The tone will shift from making requests on the state to making demands, and then to taking increasing power over the planning and decision-making processes.

It will be increasingly recognized that the local is the only level where the right decisions for self-sufficient communities can be made. The remnant state-level agencies will in time become controlled by and servants of the towns and regions, run via the typical Anarchist processes involving thoroughly participatory town self-government. Eventually all significant decisions including the biggest, will be made by town assemblies voting on policy options brought down to the town level from conferences of delegates from towns and regions (drawing on professional expertise where appropriate.)

The chances of the transition proceeding as has been outlined here are not at all good, but the argument has been that this is the path that must be worked for. One of its merits is that it envisages a transition that could be entirely peaceful and non-authoritarian.

It should be evident that both the nature of the alternative society that has been sketched here, and the transition path to it, embody classical Anarchist principles. In the coming era of limits, scarcity and frugality only communities running on Anarchist principles can deliver a sustainable and just society, and the path to the establishment of those communities cannot be other than via pre-figuring and ordinary citizens in existing settlements building thoroughly participatory arrangements.  Neither the new society nor the path to it can involve significant degrees of centralization. The appropriate world view is therefore Eco-Anarchism, rather than Eco-Socialism.

References

Ahmed, N. M., (2017), Failing States, Collapsing Systems, Dordrecht, Springer.

Appfel-Marglin, F. A., (1998), The Spirit of Regeneration; Andean Culture Confronting Western Notions of Development, London, Zed Books

Avineri, S., (1968), The Social and Political Thought of Karl Marx, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

Bardi, U., (2011), “The Seneca effect: why decline is faster than growth”, Cassandra’s Legacy, August 28 https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2011/08/seneca-effect-origins-of-collapse.html

Benholdt-Thomsen, V. and M. Mies, (1999), The Subsistence Perspective, London, Zed

Bideleaux, R., (1985), Communism and Development, London, Methuen.

Bookchin,  M., (1977), The Spanish Anarchists; The Heroic Years,  New York, Free Life Editions.

Bookchin, M., (1980), Towards an Ecological Society, Montreal, Black Rose.

Buber, M., (1958), Paths in Utopia, Boston, Beacon Press, pp. 90 – 94.

Duncan, R. C., (2013), “Olduvai  Theory; Heading into the gorge”,  The Social Contract Theory Journal, Winter, (23), 2.

Greer, J. M., (2005), How Civilizations Fall: A Theory of Catabolic Collapse . https://www.ecoshock.org/transcripts/greer_on_collapse.pdf

Korowicz, D., (2012) Trade : Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: A study in global systemic collapse. Metis Risk Consulting & Feasta.

Korten, D. C., (1999), The Post-Corporate World, West Hartford, Kumarian Press.

Kunstler, J., (2005), The Long Emergency; Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century, New York, Grove/Atlantic.

Marshal, P., (1992), Demanding the Impossible: The History of Anarchism, London, Harper Collins.

Mason, C., (2003), The 2030 Spike: Countdown to Catastrophe, London, Earthscan.

Minqi L., M., (2019), World Energy 2018-2050: World Energy Annual Report, (Part 1),Peak Oil, https://peakoil.com/consumption/world-energy-2018-2050-world-energy-annual-report-part-1

Pepper, (1996), Modern Environmentalism, London, Routledge and Kegan Paul.

Morgan, T., (2012), Perfect Storm: Energy, Finance and the End of Growth. Tullet Prebon.

Phillips, L., (2014), Austerity Ecology and the Collapse-Porn Addicts; A Defence of Growth, Progress, Industry and Stuff, Zero Books, Winchester UK.

Quinn, D., (1999), Beyond Civilization, New York, Three Rivers Press.

 

Rai, M., (1995), Chomsky’s Politics, London, Verso.

Relocalise, (2009). http://www.postcarbon.org/relocalize

Rude, C., (1998), “Postmodern Marxism; A critique”, Monthly Review, November., 52-57.

Shannin, T., (1995), Late Marx and the Russian Road, New York, Monthly Review Press.

Sharzer, G., (2012), No Local: Why Small-Scale Alternatives Won’t Change The World, Zero Books.

Mies, M. and V. Shiva, (1993), Ecofeminism, Melbourne, Spinifex.

St-Onge, E., (2015), “Senegal Transforming 14,000 Villages Into Eco-villages!”, Collective Evolution, June 17. https://www.collective-evolution.com/2015/06/17/senegal-transforming-14000-villages-into-ecovillages/

TSW: The Catalan Integral Cooperative.  thesimplerway.info/CATALAN.htm

TSW: The Limits to Growth. thesimplerway.info/LIMITS.htm

TSW: The Alternative Society. thesimplerway.info/AltSoc.Long.htm

Trainer, T., (2010) The transition towns movement; Its huge significance and a friendly critique”, Resilience, February 17.

Trainer, T, (2018), “The Transition Towns movement … going where?’”, Resilience, 7th June.

Warren, B., (1980), Imperialism; Pioneer of Capitalism, London,  New Left Books.

 

 

 

 

[1] The case is detailed in TSW: The Limits to Growth.

[2] Detailed in TSW: The Alternative Society.

[3] The reasons are spelled out in TSW: The Alternative Society.

 

[4] TSW: The Catalan Integral Cooperative.

[JR1]A note here for Sam – this is the point that, I find, few in the degrowth movement make i.e the need to permanently contract production – not just shift to alternative industries etc. Relates back to our GDP discussion. This indisputably would contract GDP, by definition.

Ted Trainer.

26.1.2019.

We cannot solve the alarming global problems confronting us if we continue to be committed to affluent-consumer lifestyles in economies driven by market forces and economic growth.  The case for this conclusion has been overwhelmingly convincing for many decades, but it has been almost impossible to get people or governments to attend to it.

There is a workable and attractive alternative society, The Simpler Way, but it requires a huge and radical shift from consumer society.

There are two major faults built into the foundations of our society, firstly to do with sustainability and secondly with injustice.

Fault 1: Sustainability.

The way of life we have in rich countries is grossly unsustainable. There is no possibility of all people on earth ever rising to rich world per capita levels of consumption of energy, minerals, timber, water, food, phosphorous etc.  These rates of consumption are generating numerous alarming global problems, now threatening our survival.  Most people have no idea of the magnitude of the overshoot, of how far we are beyond a sustainable levels of resource use and environmental impact.

If all the estimated 9 billion people likely to be living on earth after 2050 were to consume resources at the present per capita rate in rich countries, world annual resource production rates would have to be about 8 times as great as they are now.

For instance “Footprint analysis” indicates that the amount of productive land required to provide one person in Australia with food, water, energy and settlement area is about 8 ha. If 9 billion people were to live as Australians do 72 billion ha of productive land would be required.  However the total amount of productive land available on the planet is only in the region of 8 billion ha.  In other words our rich world per capita footprint is about nine times as big as it would ever be possible for all people to have.

Figures for some other items indicate much worse ratios. For instance, the top ten iron ore and bauxite consuming nations have per capita use rates that are around 65 and 90 times respectively the rates for all the other nations. (Weidmann et al., 2014.)  Mineral ore grades are falling. All people could not rise to present rich world levels of mineral use. The same case can be made with respect to just about all other resources and ecosystem services, such as agricultural land, forests, fisheries, water and biomass.

These figures make glaringly obvious the impossibility of all people ever having the ”living standards” we have taken for granted in rich countries like Australia.  We are not just a little beyond sustainable levels of resource demand and ecological impact –   we are far beyond sustainable levels.  Rich world ways, systems and “living standards” are grossly unsustainable, and can never be extended to all the world’s people.  Again, few people seem to grasp the magnitude of the overshoot.  We must face up to dramatic reductions in our present per capita levels of production and consumption.

Now add the absurd commitment to economic growth.

The main worry is not the present level of resource use and ecological impact discussed above, it is the level we will rise to given the obsession with constantly increasing the amount of production.  The supreme goal in all countries is to raise incomes, “living standards” and the GDP as much as possible, constantly and without any idea of a limit.  That is, the most important goal is economic growth.

Consider the implications. If we assume a) a 3% p.a. economic growth, b) a population of 9 billion, c) all the world’s people rising to the “living standards” we in the rich world would have in 2050 given 3% growth until then, the total volume of world economic output would be 20 times as great as it is now, and doubling every 23 years thereafter.

So even though the present levels of production and consumption are grossly unsustainable the determination to have continual increase in income and economic output will multiply these towards absurdly impossible levels in coming decades.

Why analyse in terms of 9 billion rising to rich world levels? Because a) it is not morally acceptable to assume that they remain much poorer than we are, and b) that’s what everyone aspires to so we had better think about whether it.

But what about technical advance?

When confronted by global sustainability problems most people just assume that technical advance will solve them and enable us to go on living with ever increasing levels of affluence.  They do not realise that the magnitude of the problems rules this out

The core “tech-fix” faith is that resource demand and environmental impacts can be “decoupled” from economic growth, i.e., that production and consumption can go on increasing while resource demand is sufficiently reduced.  This is absurdly implausible. How likely is it that the world’s amount of  production could be multiplied by 20 while resource use and environmental impacts are reduced by say 50%, a factor 40 reduction?  None of the thirty or more reports over the last twenty years show any reduction at all; they all show that as GDP rises so do the impacts! (1)

Global problems should be seen in these limits terms.

This “limits to growth” perspective is essential if we are to understand the most serious global problems facing us:

  • The environmental problem is basically due to the fact that far too much producing and consuming is going on, taking too many resources from nature and dumping too many wastes back into nature.  We are eliminating species mainly because we are taking so much habitat.  The environmental problem cannot be solved in an economy that is geared to providing ever-rising production, consumption, “living standards” and GDP.
  • Third World poverty and underdevelopment are inevitable if a few living in rich countries insist on taking far more of the world’s resources than all could have.  The Third World can never develop to rich world ways, because there are far too few resources for that.
  • Conflict and war are inevitable if all aspire to rich world rates of consumption, and if rich countries insist on growth, on a planet with limited resources.  Rich countries now have to support repressive regimes willing to keep their economies to the policies that enable our corporations to ship out cheap resources, use Third World land for export crops, exploit cheap labour etc.  We must be ready to get rid of regimes and to invade and run countries that threaten to follow policies contrary to our interests.  Our rich world “living standards” could not be as high as they are if a great deal of repression and violence was not taking place, and rich countries contribute significantly to this. If we are determined to remain affluent we should remain heavily armed! 
  • Deteriorating social cohesion and quality of life.

Fault 2: It is a grossly unjust society.

We in rich countries could not have anywhere near our present “living standards” if we were not taking far more than our fair share of world resources.  Our per capita consumption of items such as petroleum is around 15 times that of the poorest half of the world’s people.  The rich 1/5 of the world’s people are consuming around 3/4 of the resources produced.  Many people get so little that abound 800 million are hungry and more than that number have dangerously dirty water to drink.  Billions live on $5 per day or less.

This grotesque injustice is primarily due to the kind of economy we have, that is one which operates on market principles.  In a market need is totally irrelevant and is ignored  — things go mostly to those who are richer, because they can offer to pay more for them.  Thus we in rich countries get almost all of the scarce oil and timber traded, while millions of people in desperate need get none.  This explains why one third of the world’s grain is fed to animals in rich countries while hundreds of millions have insufficient food.

Even more importantly, the market system explains why Third World development is so inappropriate to the needs of Third World people.  What is developed is not what is needed; it is always what will make most profit for the few people with capital to invest.  Therefore there is development of export plantations and cosmetic factories but not development of small farms and firms in which poor people can produce for themselves most of the things they need.  Many countries get almost no development at all because it does not suit anyone with capital to develop anything there, even though they have the land, water, talent and labour to produce most of the things they need for a simple but satisfactory quality of life.

Even when transnational corporations do invest, wages can be 15-20 cents an hour.  Compare the miniscule benefit that flows to such workers from conventional development with what they could be getting from an approach to development which enabled them to put all their labour into mostly cooperative local firms, producing the mostly simple things they most urgently need.  But development of this kind is deliberately prevented, e.g., by the Structural Adjustment Packages which the World Bank and IMF make them accept in order to get rescue loans.  These packages are now the main mechanisms forcing them to do things that benefit the rich countries and their corporations and banks.  “Assistance” is given to indebted countries on the condition that they de-regulate their economies, eliminate protection and subsidies assisting their people, cut government spending on welfare, etc., open their economies to more foreign investment, devalue their currencies (making their exports cheaper for us and increasing what they must pay us for their imports), sell off their public enterprises, and increase the freedom for market forces to determine what happens.  All this is a bonanza for rich world corporations and for people who shop in rich world supermarkets.  The corporations can buy up firms cheaply and have greater access to cheap labour, markets, forests and land.  The repayment of loans to our banks is the supreme goal of the packages.  Thus the produce of the Third World’s soils, labour, fisheries and forests flows more readily to our supermarkets, not to Third World people.

For most Third World people the effects of the “Neo-liberal” globalisation which has intensified these processes are catastrophic. Large numbers of people lose their livelihood, access to resources is transferred from them to the corporations and rich world consumers, and the protection and assistance their governments once provided is eliminated.

These are the reasons why conventional development can be regarded as a form of plunder.  The Third World has been developed into a state whereby its land and labour benefit the rich, not Third World people.  Rich world “living standards” could not be anywhere near as high as they are if the global economy was just.

Similar effects occur in rich countries where the economic system we have mostly benefits the rich. Above all it generates obscene inequality; the richest 1% are getting most of the increase in GDP while the wages of the US workforce gave seen almost no increase in 40 years.  Half of the world’s wealth is now in the hands of about ten people. These are inevitable effects of this economy.

Conclusions on our situation.

These considerations of sustainability and global economic justice show that our predicament is totally unacceptable and cannot be solved in consumer-capitalist society.  This society cannot be fixed.  The problems are caused by some of the fundamental structures and processes of this society. There is no possibility of having an ecologically sustainable, just, peaceful and morally satisfactory society if we allow market forces and the profit motive to be the major determinant of what happens, or if we seek economic growth and ever-higher “living standards”.  Many people who claim to be concerned about the fate of the planet refuse to face up to these fundamental points.

The Required Alternative; The Simpler Way.

If the foregoing analysis of our situation is valid we must move to lifestyles and systems that allow us to live on a small fraction of present resource consumption and ecological impact.  The argument following is that there is an alternative way that would solve the major global problems, would work well, and would be attractive and enjoyable.  (For the detail see Note 4.)  The basic principles must be:-

  • Far simpler material living standards…which does not mean accepting hardship or deprivation.
  • High levels of self-sufficiency at household, national and especially neighbourhood and town levels, with relatively little travel, transport or trade.  There must be mostly small scale, local economies in which most of the things we need are produced by local labour from local resources.
  • Basically cooperative and participatory systems,
  • A quite different economic system, one not driven by market forces and profit, and in which there is far less work, production, and consumption, and a large cashless sector, including many free goods from local commons.  There must be no economic growth at all. There must be large-scale De-growth down to a far lower GDP. The basic economic decisions must be made cooperatively by local communities, not left to market forces. (However most production could be via privately owned small firms and farms.)
  • Most problematic, a radically different culture, in which competitive and acquisitive individualism is replaced by frugal, self-sufficient collectivism.

Following are some other elements within The Simpler Way —  mostly small and highly self-sufficient local economies with many little firms, farms, forests, ponds, animals, throughout settlements – participatory democracy via town assemblies –  neighbourhood workshops – many roads dug up and planted with “edible landscapes” providing free fruit and nuts – being able to get to decentralised workplaces by bicycle or on foot — voluntary community working bees – committees — town meetings making the important development and administration decisions – many productive commons in the town (fruit, timber, bamboo, herbs…) – having to work for money only one or two days a week – no  unemployment because we make sure everyone has a livelihood – living among many artists and crafts people – strong and supportive, caring community.

Simple traditional alternative technologies will be quite sufficient for many purposes, especially for producing houses, furniture, food, pottery and much of our clothing. Much production will take place via hobbies and crafts, hand tools, small farms and family enterprises. However many useful modern/high technologies can be used extensively where appropriate, including IT.  The Simpler Way will free many more resources for socially-useful purposes like medical research than are devoted to these at present, by phasing out many wasteful, unnecessary and luxurious industries and reallocating some of these resources.

There could be many small private firms, and market forces could have a role, but the economy must be under firm social control, via local participatory processes.  Local town meetings would make the important economic decisions in terms of what’s best for the town and its people and environment.  We would not allow market forces to bankrupt any firm or dump anyone into unemployment. We would make sure everyone had a livelihood. If problems arose the town would have to work out how to adjust its economy in the best interests of all.

Because we will be highly dependent on our local ecosystems and on our social cohesion, e.g., for most water and food, and for effective committees and working bees, all will have a very strong incentive to focus on what is best for the town, rather than on what is best for themselves as competing individuals. Cooperation and conscientiousness will therefore tend to be automatically rewarded, whereas in consumer society competitive individualism is required and rewarded.

Advocates of the Simpler Way have no doubt that its many benefits and sources of satisfaction would provide a much higher quality of life than most people experience in consumer society. (5.)

At this point in time the chances of achieving such a huge and radical transition would seem to be quite  remote, but the crucial question is, given our situation, can a sustainable a just society be conceived other than as some form of Simpler Way?  The argument above has been is that in view of the limits and overshoot outlined above, there is no alternative.

Over the past twenty years many small groups throughout the world have begun working to build settlements and systems more or less of the kind required, many of them explicitly as examples intended to persuade the mainstream that there is an alternative that is sustainable, just and attractive.  (For an impressive initiative in Spain see Note 6.)  The fate of the planet will depend on how effective these movements become in the next two decades. When these alternative local systems become recognised as the key to solving global problems of sustainability and justice people will develop the capacity and demand to put control over the national economy and the state into the hands of the people, via thoroughly participatory arrangements. (See Note 7 on the transition process to be worked for.)

Those who wish to contribute to the transition to The Simpler Way should firstly work hard at getting this perspective onto the agenda of public discussion. Most important however is helping to establish aspects of the Simpler Way here and now in the suburbs and towns where we live, ventures such as community gardens and workshops, local cooperatives, and community supported small farms and businesses.  Our goal must be to eventually develop these towards being the new cooperative, self-sufficient local economies that people can come to join when the mainstream runs into increasingly serious problems, such as petroleum scarcity. However, just creating more community gardens etc. is not enough; we must do this in order to raise consciousness regarding the need to scrap consumer-capitalist society and build a very different one.  (Again see Note 7.)

 

  1. thesimplerway.info/TECHFIX.htm, and thesimplerway.info/decoupling.htm
  2. ENVIRONMENT.htm
  3. thesimplerway.info/DEV.LONG.htm
  4. thesimplerway.info/PEACE.htm
  5. thesimplerway.info/THEALTSOCLong.htm.
  6. thesimplerway.info/YOURDAY.htm.  thesimplerway.info/SIMPLICITY.htm
  7. thesimplerway.info/CATALAN.htm
  8. thesimplerway.info/TRANSITION.htm

THE SIMPLER WAY PERSPECTIVE — A SUMMARY

Remaking Settlements: The Potential Cost Reductions enabled by the Simpler Way

This is a short summary account. For the full 53 page 22,000 word derivation see thesimplerway.info/RemakingSettlements.htm)

Ted Trainer

15.9.2016

Limits to growth and Footprint analyses show that the current resource and environmental costs of rich world societies must be reduced by something like 90% before levels enabling all to live sustainably could be achieved.

This study used data on typical Australian consumption rates, food production yields, suburban geographies, etc. to derive possible reductions in dollar, resource and ecological costs that might be achieved if suburbs and towns were radically transformed according to Simpler Way principles, that is, to be highly self sufficient and self-governing.

The study indicated that dollar, energy and footprint costs could be cut to around 10% of the present Australian averages, while improving the quality of life.

The context:

The Limits to Growth analysis shows that we must develop ways of life whereby we can live well on far lower per capita resource consumption rates than we have now, in a zero-growth economy.  (Seethesimplerway.info/LIMITS.htm.) Even within the De-Growth movement it is not clearly understood that the magnitude of the reductions needed is huge, probably to 10% of present levels. The Simpler Way argument is that this can be done, but only if there is enormous change away from the structures, systems and values of consumer-capitalist society. (See thesimplerway.info/THEALTSOCLong.htm) Only in highly localised, cooperative and self-sufficient communities will it be possible to achieve globally sustainable and just ways.

The de-growth movement lacks persuasive visions of alternative possibilities and providing these is the top priority of The Simpler Way project.  People will be more likely to abandon unsatisfactory systems if they can see plausible, workable and attractive alternatives.

The quite frugal lifestyle and systems assumed here are highly attractive to me and I would opt for them whether or not they were necessary.  They could significantly raise the quality of life of people even in the richest countries.

Following are brief summary notes on the findings derived in detail in the main report. The study examined each of several consumption/supply categories, such as food, buildings and leisure, to work out what the land area, dollar and energy costs would be if an outer Sydney suburb (East Hills) was converted to The Simpler Way. The proposals would be much more easily implemented in rural areas. Several of the figures are first estimates and are quite uncertain and the intention is to refine these as time goes by.

 Food:

It was found that most and possibly almost all food could come from within settlements, that is from home gardens, community gardens, neighbourhood commons, and very small farms, at a very low dollar cost and energy costs, assuming radical restructuring of areas.

Some of the principles assumed are,

  • Use of almost all available space, including the digging up of most roads, densely packed with “edible landscapes”.
  • Overlapping functions e.g., orchards also graze animals and are leisure resources.
  •  Multi-cropping; the small scale enables new seeds to be planted immediately an area becomes vacant, keeping the whole area in continual use.
  • Use of imperfect produce that cannot now be marketed, and recycling “wastes” to animals, fish ponds and compost heaps.
  • Mostly hand tools and labour-intensive gardening, with a little use of light machinery on the small farms, where equipment can be shared.
  • No “wastes”, no sewers or disposal costs due to strict recycling of all nutrients, from gardens, animals and humans, to animals, gas digesters, fish ponds and compost heaps, The goal is a sufficient quantity of nutrients constantly recycled between soils and kitchens.
  • Thus no purchase of fertilizers, or pesticides.
  • Seed saving.
  • Only use of fresh foods in season.
  • Much reduced consumption of meat, to come mostly from small animals, especially poultry, rabbits and fish via intensive use of ponds and small tanks.
  • Many commons, especially on retrieved road space, containing gardens, orchards, woodlots, fish ponds, processing and storage sheds, “food forests”, maintained by voluntary working bees and committees.
  • Surprisingly it would seem to be possible for the settlement to meet its (considerably reduced) meat demand from small animal production withinitsborders.
  • Many co-operatives, e.g., for neighbourhood fish supply.
  • Family farms, from very small to tiny, in backyards, vacant blocks, on commons, and on larger blocks just outside the settlement, producing for local use.
  • Almost no packaging, energy-intensive storage, “marketing”, transport costs, high tech corporations, professionals in suits, corporate profits or bank interest payments adding to the cost of produce.

Area and yield figures:

The notes in the following box illustrate the kind of numerical assumptions and derivations detailed in the full report for each field.

Vegetables: 

Australian consumption is 112 kg/pp/y.  This, along with fruit, should be greatly increased, via reduction in meat consumption. If 75% of the 111 kg/pp/y of meat consumption was shifted to vegetables, increasing vegetable consumption to194 kg/pp/y, and vegetable production was 15 t/ha/y (much higher rates are possible), then vegetable growing area would have to be only 130 m2 per person. The suburb East Hills has around 270 m2 per person that could be used for food production.

Eggs:

Australian consumption is 180 per person p.a., which at 50 g per egg is 9 kg/y.  Household consumption would average only 8.4 per week, so these might be produced by a long term average of less than 2 chickens per household, or 0.4 per person. (ABC, 2014.)

Almost no area would be needed specially for poultry apart from sheds, because birds would be fed food scraps, would free range on much of the dairy, orchard and forest areas, and they would be rotated around vegetable patches to clean up, fertilise and cultivate. Areas for production of some food supplements are accounted within the “animal feed” category (below).

Summary of food findings:

The kinds of analyses in the above box were also carried out for grain, dairy, fish, fruit, animal feeds, meat, beverages and sweeteners. The initial analysis using Australian average farm yield figures indicated that the land area available would enable about 60% of food to be produced within the suburb.

However the figures derived are probably much too high, mainly because yields from intensive home gardening and small farms are much higher than the figures used which came from national commercial production. For instance urban agriculture in Havana Cuba is reported to produce 21 t/ha/y of vegetables. (Koont, 2009.) Watson (2015) reminds us that the “Victory Gardens” planted by ordinary people in England during World War 2 achieved on average 10 times the typical agricultural yield. Diggers Seeds, (Blazey, 1999) claims that their trials using intensive home gardening, multi-cropping and heirloom seed varieties produce c. 40 t/ha/y. Joe Dervaes (2014) operates a remarkable “urban agriculture” in Pasadena where he claims to produce 2,727 kg of food p.a. from his 0.04 ha house block.  This corresponds to a barely credible 68 t/ha/y. In addition the above initial area figure does not take into account use of roofs and walls, greenhouses, elimination of much pet food demand and of waste in marketing, or aquaculture.

These figures for probable yields from intensive local agriculture indicate that the initial area figure could be at least halved. If so, all food could be produced within the settlement.

The tools and equipment needed for food production were listed, and their dollar, embodied energy costs and lifetimes were estimated. (For the detail seethesimplerway.info/RemakingSettlermentsToolInventory.htm) It was assumed that 25% of food would come from local small farms.

No dollar costs have been included for labour. Much of the “work” would have no dollar cost, as it would be willing home gardening and contributions to cooperatives and community gardens.  A thorough accounting would need to include paid work on small farms.

Dollar operational/running costs would be negligible. The constant dollar cost (i.e., based on equipment lifetimes) of total equipment stock came to  $1,026/pp or $34/pp/y. Energy operational/running cost would be very low as this is mostly via hand tools, but the small amount for pumping and small farm machinery would need to be added for a thorough account. Embodied energy cost of equipment stock was 3,304 MJ/pp or 81 MJ/pp/y.

These are extremely low figures and the comparison with conventional agribusiness is stark. In 2007 the operational energy cost of the US food supply system (not including energy embodied in machinery replacement etc.,) was taking around 16% of national, energy, which is about 47 GJ/pp/y.  (Canning, et al., 2010.) The operational energy cost associated with the above restructured system would be close to negligible, and almost all would be available from 12 V PV systems.  The above figure for operational energy, i.e., energy consumed in US producing food, is about 670 times the estimated annual embodiedenergy cost of the local system.

Buildings:

Little needs to be said here on this topic as the study assumed that all new buildings would be as small as possible and mostly built from earth, via well established practices and designs. However the detailed accounting of dollar and energy costs indicates that these can be much lower than is often stated.   This is partly because dollar costs for labour can be largely avoided, by people building their own small dwellings at a relaxed pace, with assistance from friends and experienced builders, and by construction of community facilities by voluntary working bees. Detailed itemized costing for a small house of approximately 50 m2 floor area indicates an overall cost of under $6,000, (using 2010 new materials prices). This is around 4% of the amount per square metre that would have to be earned (when bank interest and taxes are included) to purchase a normal house. (See thesimplerway.info/HOUSING.htm)

New premises for most local firms, shops and community facilities would be at most three stories in height, eliminating the need for lifts.  In general finishes would be rough/rustic, not slick, e.g., barked saplings, mud walls, unpainted wood, with few metal or plastic surfaces.

These requirements do not have to imply drab or impoverished appearances. Simple earth-built structures can be beautiful, idiosyncratic and decorated in a wild variety of styles. The resulting landscapes can be unique and interesting leisure resources.

The detailed itemized list given for domestic houses plus community buildings yields continuing/lifetime costs of $63/pp/y, and 74 MJ/pp/y. The Australian 2010 average expenditure on housing was about $1,061/pp/y, 17 times as high. Simple mostly craft-built furnishing, appliances and equipment would add $165/pp/y and 300 MJ/pp/y.

Tools

The costs derived from the inventory of tools needed for (home plus community) workshops and food production were  $165/pp/y and 300 MJ/pp/y.  (See (thesimplerway.info/RemakingEquipmentInventory.htm)

 Irrigation & Plumbing:

This category was for gardening, not domestic uses. It included small 12 volt pumps an cement for setting up systems, especially small tanks.  The energy cost figure is for embodied costs, not for the very low running or production costs. The totals for system establishment plus annual maintenance/replacement etc. costs were $13.7 pp/y and 102 MJ/pp/y.

Household Equipment

Furniture and many other items such as sheds, animal shelters, and boats would be simple, cheap, robust and durable, made from local materials, mostly wood. Items would be repairable, and most would be home-made. Some would come from local craft businesses in which people could enjoy making good solid furniture. These pieces might be relatively expensive, but they would last for generations, and cost would not matter since in general monetary needs might be met with two days paid work a week (see below.)

Annual equipment maintenance costs (excluding TV and computers, and some other minor items)  were $165/pp/y and 300 MJ/pp/y. The Australian average household expenditure on “furnishings and equipment” is $1,136/pp/y. (ABS. 2015.)

Materials:

There would be little use of energy-intensive metals and plastics.  The reduced quantities of glass, steel, cement (little use of aluminium) might be produced regionally by solar and wind generated electricity in those periods when there was surplus supply.  There would be intensive research into local plant sources for chemicals, adhesives, medicines, paints, lubricants, fibres and fabrics.  Most of the dangerous and pollution generating synthetic chemicals in use today would not be necessary.

Timber would be a major material, replacing most metals and plastics. It could all be produced from local woodlots and neighbourhood mini saw mills within and close by settlements, (e.g., old car engines running on methane or ethanol.)  Timber needs would be low in a stable economy, called on only to maintain stocks of housing and furniture. Considerable use would be made of clay and ceramics, fired by wood in local kilns, including for plumbing and drainage, and eventually for replacement of tin roofing with tiles.

Some materials would be produced in bulk in large regional or national factories, such as fabrics, metals and irrigation pipe, and distributed to many small factories, hardware stores and workshops.  Demand for paper would be greatly reduced, especially as there would be little packaging, and it might be met from local forests and recycling.  Little high quality paper would be needed given the general concern to have standards that are as low as possible but sufficient.

Clothing:

Almost all the clothes worn could be simple, tough, cheap and durable, old and much repaired. Few if any would need to work in a suit or tie, let alone new clothes. Much clothing and footwear could be made at home via hobby production. Some people could specialise in small business dress making and tailoring. There would be a great deal of that miraculous art form, knitting, using wool spun from the local sheep.

Based on my clothing and footwear use an uncertain annual expenditure estimate might be $100/pp/y, (mainly for work shoes.)  The Australian per capita average spending on clothing and footwear is $982/y. (ABS, 2015.)

Manufactured Goods:

Most manufactured items would be produced in households, neighbourhood workshops and small local firms or cooperatives, and they would be produced in craft ways, not via industrial factories.

Small regional factories (e.g., within 5 – 10 km) would produce many basic items such as bicycles, cutlery, pots and pans, roof tiles, and bolts. There would be intensive recycling, and items would be made to last and to be repaired.  Only small quantities of more elaborate items such as electronic devices would need to be imported from the national economy.

Some but few items and materials including metals and some chemical inputs would need to be produced at larger industries in more centralized locations and moved into the regions close to towns.  The very few items imported long distances or internationally might include high-tech equipment for health, research, electronics, communications, IT, some manufactured products, but few of these would be needed in everyday life around a suburb or town.

The few specialized or large scale factories needed, e.g., to produce lathes and drill presses, cloth, cement and steel, would be distributed throughout the nation so that all towns could contribute to meeting national needs and earn the mall amount of income they would need to import basic necessities from other regions. Little international trade would be needed, for instance for high-tech medical equipment.

Water:

Because the new agriculture would rely heavily on permanent crops, especially trees, and relatively little meat would be consumed, and all domestic water would be recycled to gardens, the water demand associated with annual crops would be greatly reduced. Water would be scrupulously harvested locally, from rooftops, catchments and creeks, there would be intensive mulching, and all household water use would be recycled to food production. There would therefore be little need for big dams, mains, large pumping stations, and the bureaucracies to run them. Windmills and small electric pumps would do most of the fresh and waste water pumping.

An estimate of operational energy costs for pumping based on my homestead might be well under .05 kWh/pp/d, or 18 kWh/pp/y.

Transport & Travel:

In the new economy of The Simpler Way there would be little need for transport to get people to work, because much less work in offices and factories would be done, and most work places would be localisedand accessible by bicycle or on foot. The few large factories producing necessities for the national economy would be close to towns and railway stations.

A few cars, trucks and bulldozers would be needed but the vehicles in most use would be bicycles, with some but relatively little use of buses and trains.  Horses could be used for some transport, especially carting goods the mostly short distances required, for instance from local farms. Most roads and freeways would be dug up and the space used for gardens. Railway and bus production would be one of the few activities to take place in large centralised heavier industrial centres.

Very few ships, large trucks or aircraft would be produced because there would be little need for the transport of goods or people over long distances. There would be little international travel, partly because the fuel for that will in future be extremely scarce, and secondly because there would be relatively little need for it. There would be far less of that huge energy-intensive indulgent luxury that is travel for leisure purposes. The main reason why we would not travel much for leisure or holidays is because there would be many interesting alternative things to do in and around our settlements. (See Leisure, below.)

The potential travel and transport total for the restructured suburb was about 2.4 GJ/pp/y, and the dollar cost of travel and transport $400/pp/y. The present Australian average per capita household transport energy consumption is costing $4,014/pp/y. Household petroleum use is 457 PJ, or 20 GJ/pp/y.

 “Work”

Because in a Simpler Way society people would be content to consume only what is sufficient, and because many goods and services could be acquired without money, for instance ”free” from commons and via swapping and gifting arrangements, most people would probably need to go to work for money only one or two days a week.  They would enjoy working with friends, in control of their contribution to meeting local needs, or running their own little shop or farm, knowing they were helping to maintain a thriving community.  This assumes considerable collective control over the economy to make sure there is no growth, no significant inequality, no unemployment, no poverty, all have a worthwhile and respected livelihood, and above all that top priority is given to meeting individual and social needs. These conditions are not possible in competitive, winner-take-all consumer-capitalist society.  (For the detail see thesimplerway.info/THENEWECONOMY.htm.)

Most production would not require highly specialized skills. For instance much/most food could come from home and community gardeners and commons. The “Jack of all trades” might be the most valuable worker, able to make and fix many things. People would be able to move between several quite different tasks each week, in their garden, hobby and craft groups (e.g., knitting, pottery), and on working bees and committees. They could volunteer at schools and hospitals or on committees organizing concerts, leisure activities and festivals. Thus the problem of alienated labour could be entirely eliminated; “work” time would also be enjoyable leisure time, and the work/leisure distinction would largely disappear.

Health and Medicine:

The far more healthy circumstances in Simpler Way settlements would dramatically reduce the incidence of mental and physical illness and the associated resource costs. Most people would be much healthier than they are now due to the more labour-intensive lifestyles and the high quality food.  Even more important would be the psychological factors, the elimination of insecurity, unemployment, poverty, loneliness and stress, long work and travel times and the worry about housing loan interest rates. Everyone would experience a supportive and cooperative community, a stress free and relaxed pace, interesting projects, having a sense of purpose and being valued for making a worthwhile contribution.

Retirement & Old Age:

Older, experienced people would be highly valued contributors to production and more importantly to social functioning, given their wisdom and their knowledge of local people, conditions and history.  There would be no compulsory retirement age, and few would retire in the normal sense.  People could slowly phase down their level of activity as they wished.  Most would want to remain active contributors.

Much of the care of older people would be carried out spontaneously by the community via the committees, working bees, rosters and the informal involvement of people. With five days a week to spare many people would drop in frequently to chat and help out.  Old people would be able to remain in their homes much longer, there would be little need for retirement “homes” and specialised staff.  There would be small local hospitals and nursing facilities close to where people had lived, set within the busiest parts of settlements so people could drop in and residents could see and be involved in activities around them. Thus the experience of old, infirm, mentally and physically disadvantaged, and mentally ill people would be far better than it is now.

Government:                                                    

A major element in The Simpler Way is the devolvement of most governing to the level of the neighbourhood, suburb, town and region. Few functions would remain for state and national systems. The form would (have to) be thoroughly participatory, involving town meetings and referenda, but mostly informal processes that do not involve bureaucracy or professionals. Dollar costs would be a minute fraction of present levels.

Leisure:

Simpler Way settlements and lifestyles are rich in resource-cheap leisure opportunities. A walk around the town would involve one in conversations with familiar people, observing activity in small farms and firms, and the enjoyment of a beautifully gardened landscape.

Any town or suburb includes many talented musicians, singers, storytellers, actors, comedians and playwrights, presently unable to perform because the globalised entertainment industry only needs a few super-stars.  These people would thrive, having several days a week to practise their art and being appreciated for their (largely unpaid) contributions to the many local gatherings, concerts and festivals. In addition much leisure time would be spent in productive activities, such as gardening and arts and crafts. In other words leisure will often involve negative dollar costs.

There would be leisure and cultural committees organizing a rich variety of interesting activities and holiday options. Thus the astronomical sums of energy and resources going into overseas travel and the tourism industry might be more or less eliminated.

Based in these kinds of assumptions and practices at Pigface Point the study arrived at leisure and holiday costs of 44 MJ/pp/week or 2,290 MJ/pp/y. Australian per capita expenditure on recreation, sport and holidays is around $3,900/pp/y. (sic!) (ABS. 6530. 2015.)

Working Bee Labour Available:

In the suburb of East Hills there are probably 2,500 adults plus children old enough to contribute to voluntary working bees.  If 80% of them participated in a one hour working bee each week, then 2,000 person-hours per week could be going into community production, maintenance, services,  development and activities.  This is equal to having 50 people working full time, or one for each three hectares.  At present Council labour going into maintenance within the suburb would be a tiny fraction of this amount.

If many people moved to part-time paid work, and if informal “drop-in and help-out” activity was included, the total work time for community operation, maintenance and development could be many times the above total. In a well-established alternative economy, as on many Eco-villages today, the time a person could comfortably give to community maintenance and production could be several days a week.

These working bee and committee functions would be crucial not just for achieving technical goals such as maintaining windmills, but for the ensuring high levels of solidarity, mutuality, social consciousness and responsibility, and morale, pride and empowerment.

Energy:

Far less energy would be required than at present.  This would firstly be because there would be far less producing and consuming going on, and because much of what remained would be carried out without heavy industry, ships, aircraft, trucks, storage, rods, ports, marketing, machinery, and commuting to employment.  We would be living in solar passive mud brick houses, recycling, getting to work on a bike, with close access to local sport, cultural and leisure facilities, and not traveling much for leisure.

A significant proportion of the small quantity of energy needed would come from human energy, most obviously in food production, construction, bicycle travel, craft manufacture and working bees using shovels rather than bulldozers. There would be “negative costs” in terms of enjoyment, social interaction, and especially physical exercise.

Thus dramatic energy reductions would be possible. The average per capita electricity use at Pigface Point for all purposes including lights, computer, workshop machinery, and garden water pumps but not refrigeration is well under 8.3 W, or 71 kWh/pp/y or 255 MJ/pp/y. A small electric refrigerator might consume another 36 W. (At present refrigeration is by a much more energy-consuming LPG fridge.)

The present Australian household electricity consumption is 217 PJ/y, 9.4 GJ/pp/y, 2,610 kWh/y, or .3KW, about 7 times larger than the Pigface Point figure which includes more functions sucvh as garden irrigation.

Indicative total dollar & Energy Budget:

The dollar total for all the above estimates was $2,918/pp/y, which can be compared with the 2009 Australian average expenditure on household goods and services of $26,780/pp/y. (ABS, 2009.)

The estimated energy total demand came to 5,538 MJ/pp/y = 1,538 kWh/pp/y, half of which was for transport. If transport is excluded the figure becomes 2,846 MJ/pp/y.  This is about 14% of the present average household non-transport energy consumption of approximately 20,000 MJ/pp/y, (even though that figure does not include any of the embodied energy costs included here.) (Dept. Env., Water, Heritage and Arts, 2008, Department of Industry and Science, 2015, p. 15.)

It should be stressed that the alternative ways discussed would have their greatest reduction effects not at the household level but on national and international energy and dollar budgets, for instance by eliminating global food transportation, and most water and sewage pumping.

Quality of life/Community

Obviously the level of “austerity” assumed in this vision would not be acceptable to most people today but it is important to emphasise that it does not involve hardship or deprivation. In fact advocates of The Simpler Way would insist that it promises a higher quality of life than people in the suburb average today. East Hills is a typical dormitory suburb, with almost no discernible community.  Few people living there today would have any association or interaction with any others in the suburb. The streets are almost completely deserted all the time, apart from a few walking to and from the railway station.  Most of the roads serve only as driveways enabling cars to get out to through roads.  Residents probably exhibit the high national average rates of depression, unemployment, alcoholism, suicide etc.  If the geographical, economic and social rearrangements described above could be implemented it is likely that there would marked improvements in all quality of life indices. The alternative arrangements sketched provide major opportunities to reduce or eliminate problems of insecurity, unemployment, bored youth, loneliness, homeless and aged care, and to ensure abundant access to the conditions that define genuine welfare.  (See thesimplerway.info/YOURDAY.htm and thesimplerway.info/SIMPLICITY.htm.)

Conclusions:

Although the above estimates are uncertain they suggest that the restructuring described could reduce the present dollar and energy costs of living in rich world settlements by perhaps 90%, and therefore enable a globally sustainable and just society.

Consider especially the implications for Third World ”development”.  Billions of people are presently trapped in the capitalist ”growth and trickle down” paradigm, which ensures that many suffer in squalor while the resources that they could be using to meet most of their own needs flow out to enrich the global rich. The conventional economist insists that the only way to raise their “living standards” is to produce more to sell into the global market economy so they can earn more income … to purchase goods from that economy, and accumulate the capital needed for developing the power stations, freeways, ports, houses etc. to eventually achieve the taken-for-granted goal of development, i.e., the kind of industries and lifestyles the rich world has.

The Simper Way shows that this entire world view is not just totally mistaken, it masks the plunder that conventional development involves.  Conventional theory is an ideology endorsing practices that enrich the rich by transferring to them the resources of the poor, asserting that exporting resources to earn money is the only way to increase ”wealth”, and thus achieve satisfactory development.

But the above analysis shows that a radically different kind of development is conceivable. Simpler Way communities enabling a high level of provision of basic necessities could be developed quickly by ordinary people using local resources, with very little need for engagement with national or international economies, or for capital. They would need access to only small quantities of basic materials and equipment from beyond local boundaries.

Of course Simpler Way alternative development clashes head on with the interests of global corporations and banks and local elites.  These groups prosper most when people have no alternative but to work in plantations and corporations for wages which they then have to spend purchasing necessities from corporations.  No good to them if people grow their own carrots rather than buy them from supermarkets, or develop local economies that operate outside the normal economy and might not even use money. Simpler Way communal self-sufficient development is a mortal threat to capitalist development which seeks to maximize business turnover.

Consider also the way this alternative can defuse global ecological threats. What will happen to the global atmosphere if 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians frantically build more coal-fired power stations because everyone knows that this is the only way to generate the economic growth that is essential for raising their “living standards”…when that is totally avoidable. How many people would resort to the ivory or bush meat trades, piracy or drug running if they had livelihoods in highly self sufficient villages? How many refugees would there be. How many armed conflicts would thee be given that many of these are due to the quest to secure the dwindling resources needed by consumer-capitalist development?

                                                                        ————-

ABC, (2014), Gardening Program, Australian Broadcasting Corporation

ABS, (2015), Household Expenditure Survey. 6530.

Blazey, C., (1999), The Australian Vegetable Garden, Diggers Seeds, Dromana, Victoria.

Canning, P., A. Charles, S. Huang, K. R. Polenske, and A. Waters, (2010), Energy Use in the

U.S. Food System, US Dept. Of Agriculture.

Dept. of Environment, Water, Heritage and Arts, (2008), Energy Use in the Australian Residential Sector, 1986 – 2020.

Department of Industry and Science, (2015), 2015 Australian Energy Update, Canberra, August.

Dervaes, Joe, (2014), Homegrown Revolution, 15 min video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IbODJiEM5A&list=TLmHbT8-YpHqo

Koont. S., (2009),“The urban food gardens of Havana”, Monthly Review, 60.8 Jan, 44-63.

Watson, K., (2015), “Home growing produces ten times the food of arable farms,” Our World, UN University. 29th March.

The Transition Towns Movement … going where?

First Published at resilience.org

Ted Trainer

The global predicament cannot be solved other than through a Transition Towns movement, and the emergence of such a movement has been of immense importance. But I fear that the present movement is not going to do what’s needed. Four years ago I circulated reasons for this view. I recently made an effort to get current information from various people in the movement and I fear the case for doubt is even stronger today. Here is a brief indication of my main concerns.

I take it for granted we agree that the global situation requires massive system changes, including scrapping the growth economy, de-growth down to far lower per capita levels of production and consumption than rich countries have today, and the market must be prevented from determining our fate. These things cannot be done unless there is transition to a basic social pattern involving mostly small, highly self sufficient and self governing and collectivist communities that maximise use of local resources to meet local needs and which are content with very frugal material lifestyles. Only settlements of this general kind can get the per capital resource rates down sufficiently while ensuring ecological sustainability and a high quality of life for all. (Those rates will probably have to go down to 10% of their present levels: For the reasoning see TSW: 2017a.) This does not mean deprivation or hardship or abandoning high tech, universities, sophisticated medical facilities etc. (For the detail TSW 2018a.)

The transition needed is so historically massive and unprecedented that it is not likely to be achieved, but when our situation is understood it is the only goal that makes sense to strive for. It will not be done by governments. They will not attempt to do it. They will not even recognize that it needs to be done. They are totally locked into trying to make the growth and affluence system work. Virtually none of your politicians or bureaucrats grasp or have any interest in the basic limits to growth analysis of our global predicament or what changes are imperative.

Two classes are responsible for this suicidal commitment. The first is the capitalist class which must have constant expansion of opportunities to invest their ever-accumulating capital. The second includes…almost everyone else. Progress defined as increasing material wealth has been so deeply entrenched in the Western mentality since the Enlightenment that challenges to this conception are ignored.

The transition will only become possible as the coming time of troubles intensifies, i.e., as we descend into massive terminal depression. The task for us here and now is to try to increase the numbers who will be able to lead the way to the sane option when breakdown begins to make it obvious that the old system is no longer going to provide for them. Over the last few decades the Eco-village movement and the Transition Towns movement have been of immense historical importance in taking the first steps in what we must hope will be this process.

But what they are doing now could very well come to nothing. Many believe that’s what will happen, including I assume just about everyone on the red Left. This is primarily because when it comes to transition theory these movements are at present essentially mindless, theoryless, and deliberately so. They have nothing to say about how the things being done are going to lead to a world order that is sustainable and just. By what mechanisms or chain of causes is developing more community gardens etc. supposed to culminate someday in a society that is not run by and for the rich few, driven by market forces and geared to perpetual growth? Why is it a mistake to believe, as many do, that starting more community gardens etc. will only lead to a society that remains grossly unsustainable and unjust but has some community gardens etc. in it?

That there is no need to bother about these questions is made clear in the Transition Towns literature. It tells us to “just doing something, anything.” This is the message in one of the movements’ gospels, The Power of Just Doing Stuff: How Local Action Can Change the World. Their newsletters and other literature do not discuss how the activities enthused about at length are supposed to do what centuries of strategic thinking and hard work and fighting at barricades have failed to do. Two hundred years of struggle for a better society, suffering, organising, and bloody turmoil, informed by enormous amount of theorising, tract writing, conferences and intense debate between various transition theorists. Evidently all that can now be seen to have been unnecessary and a mistake; no need to form and debate theories of transition, just “do something–anything”, and in time we will find ourselves in a good society.

The literature does not even explain why localism is important, why it is necessary to achieve sustainability. Why isn’t it better to support green political parties towards the day when they take power and get the right policies enacted? Here’s why: only very small scale economies can cut the resource costs right down. I have recently completed a study comparing egg production costs for the typical supermarket/industrial path with those for the village or neighbourhood co-operative path. The ratios for dollar and energy costs are over 200 to 1. This is because proximity enables outputs such as manures from co-op production to go straight to nearby gardens, fish ponds and methane digesters, and it enables kitchen and garden “wastes” to go straight to the chickens, eliminating all need for transport, feed production factories, packaging, advertising, waste removal and dumping, and avoiding carbon emissions and soil damaging agribusiness etc. etc. See Trainer, 2018.

This readiness to just do anything that appeals and failure to think carefully about what needs to be done is also evident in the adoption of alternative currencies. Most if not all of these adopted within the movement are like the Brixton pound which involve substitution of new notes for old. These can have some publicity and feel-good value but cannot perform the most valuable function of alternative currencies; i.e., creating economic activity by enabling people dumped into idleness and poverty by the mainstream economy to begin producing and exchanging to meet each other’s needs. Varieties of a simple LETSystem can do this. I detailed the point in my earlier critique. More recently Marshall and Oneill, (2018), have found unsurprisingly that the Brixton pound is probably making no difference to the local economy.

It is not just that the strategic logic of the movement is not explained, it is also that the goals of the movement still remain extremely vague. Here is all that is said on the topic in the recent 63 page document,

“It is about communities stepping up to address the big challenges they face by starting local. By coming together, they are able to create solutions together. They seek to nurture a caring culture, one focused on connection with self, others and nature. They are reclaiming the economy, sparking entrepreneurship, reimaging work, reskilling themselves and weaving webs of connection and support. Courageous conversations are being had; extraordinary change is unfolding.”

So now you know precisely what the movement is all about, and how it is going to save the planet.

The rest of that document is like the movement’s other “explanatory” literature in detailing procedures for setting up and running groups and activities (e.g., “Awareness raising”, “Form subgroups”, “Build a bridge to local government”) but throwing no light on what the groups are then supposed to do or why. Presumably the answer is, “just do something/anything.”

Nor does this literature provide groups with any assistance or suggestions derived from experience regarding what might be the best projects to undertake, what has been found to work well, what ones are too difficult, what seem best for spreading public awareness, etc.

The most commonly expressed goal of the movement is for towns to achieve resilience, in the face of looming energy problems. I strongly disagree with this. The goal should be to develop settlements that enable a sustainable and just world, and these must have such simple systems and lifestyles that present rich world per capita resource use can be literally decimated. These settlements will indeed be highly resilient, but that is not a sufficient or focal factor; a settlement could be very resilient but still involve high levels of consumption of things provided by an unjust global economy.

Another major concern I have is that there is almost no reference to frugality and a simple lifestyles as a goal, let alone as the most important goal. The consumer society obsession with wealth, property, travel and affluence must be replaced by non-material sources of life satisfaction. Implausible? Too hard? Maybe it is, but then we will not make it. It is not possible to design and get to a sustainable and just world unless we make this huge cultural change. Again this goal cannot be achieved without the most massive transformation of systems far beyond the town borders; the elimination of the growth economy, the phasing out of most heavy industry, radical restructuring of national economies, global de-growth, etc. etc.

Above all there seems to be no interest in developing strategies to increase public awareness of the need for extreme, radical and rapid global transition towards localism. There is now widespread discontent with this society, hence Trump, but very little understanding that the big global problems are due to the consumer-capitalist-growth-and-affluence-forever commitment. The discontent is only fuelling demands to get the economy going again. Virtually all Australian politicians are fiercely dedicated to “growth and jobs” (the governing party’s winning election slogan) and most people only want higher wages, lower energy prices and more property and cruise ships. We will get nowhere unless and until there is a high level of public awareness of the need to scrap growth, market domination and wealth-obsession etc. At this early stage working on that mentality should be our top priority, and people involved in Eco-villages and Transition Towns are in an ideal position to do it because they can point towards viable alternatives. But they are more or less not doing it, certainly not prioritizing it.

I strongly believe that the things happening in the Transition Towns and Eco-village movements are of the utmost importance, and are crucial and necessary as the first steps that must be taken in the required revolution — but I believe that on their own a) they will come to nothing of global significance, and b) if they are to be significant they must be informed by the correct transition theory and strategy. That is, by a vision of how to get from here to there that is in fact correct, that will actually get us there. None of us knows what that theory is (I’ll sketch my view below), but we had better think hard about what it is if we are to have any chance of getting it right and not going down paths that cannot succeed.

People on the red left think the path the Eco-village and Transition Towns movements are taking are laughably wrong. Are they mistaken; can we show this? I think they are mistaken and have put my case in detail several times (e.g., Trainer, 2016), but my point here is that people within the Eco-village and Transition Towns movements appear to have no interest whatsoever in thinking about any of this. Just do whatever nice green local stuff takes your fancy and eventually the planet will have been saved.

The Simpler Way Transition Theory

From the perspective of The Simpler Way this revolution will have two stages. The first, well underway, involves increasing recognition that the old project of growth and trickle down in the pursuit of affluence is not going to provide for all and that radical system change is required. Stage 1 involves the gradual establishment of various aspects of the required alternative, i.e., those that can be set up now within the old system. These practical steps can have important educational effects, in spreading awareness of the feasibility and attractiveness of alternative ways, and more importantly of introducing a radically alternative world view. They can demonstrate lifestyles, values, systems and ways of proceeding that contradict the old competitive, individualistic, wealth and greed-obsessed culture. When the serious breakdowns and depression impact and increasing numbers are unemployed etc. hopefully people will be realize they can to come across to the new ways we are establishing in their neighbourhoods and towns, and quickly increase the numbers and scale.

But this localism is far from enough. Towns and suburbs and eco-villages will always be significantly dependent on distant inputs, on boots and chicken wire and electric pumps and stoves and medicines as well as on the distant mines and power stations, and ships and corporations that produce the resources and the factories that process them. Most of the things that Eco-villages today consume are being produced outside them. Towns will always be to some considerable extent dependent on their national and global economies. How is setting up a child-minding co-op today supposed to contribute to making these bigger and more distant systems sustainable and just? Clearly that cannot be done without astronomically big revolutions in national and international economies, political systems and, most difficult, in cultures. No need to think about it?

My (uncertain) view is that an effective causal chain to Stage 2 could eventually emerge if towns come to focus on gradually taking as much collective citizen control of their own fate as is possible, and then seek to continually extend this outlook and capacity beyond the town. Setting up nice green ventures that will function within the rules and limits of the existing economy, or parallel to it, as many community orchards and co-ops do, does not move us in this direction. But it is a quite different game when the town starts asking questions like, ”What are our most urgent needs in this town? Do we have bored teenagers and lonely old people? Do we have unemployed people? Are there people who don’t get enough good food, or need assistance with coping, or who are homeless? Governments and officials are not solving these problems. Let us think about what arrangements, what co-ops and mini-banks, and committees we can collectively set up to meet some of those needs drawing on our local resources, especially of time and skill and concern.”

This is to begin the creation of what The Simpler Way approach refers to as a town “Community Development Co-operative”, intended to start building an Economy B, i.e., our own mostly cooperative arrangements to meet urgent needs underneath the old Economy A. We clearly assert that the goals, means and values of Economy B flatly contradict those of the old economy, especially in …

  • targeting neglected community needs,
  • preventing market forces from determining what happens,
  • working cooperatively, not as individual entrepreneurs (although there can be a considerable role for small private farms and firms),
  • minimizing resource use,
  • maximizing local self-sufficiency by harnessing the time, skills and enthusiasm the town has.

The resources that exist in any town for building a powerful Economy B are considerable. Just reflect on the huge amount of time now wasted watching trivia on a screen. (My Remaking Settlements report, TSW, 2017, emphasised that if people in the small outer Sydney suburb studied gave a mere one hour a week to community working bees then 2,000 person hours a week could be going into enriching the suburb materially and spiritually. )

So to me the emergence of this determination of ordinary citizens to take collective control, to set up our arrangements to solve our town’s problems, is the crucial turning point. This is a going beyond merely setting up another enterprise within the old society. It involves the development of a consciousness whereby we feel we “own” and are responsible for our town; “This is our town and we have got problems. What are we going to do about them?” There are towns and regions operating with this orientation. Possibly the most impressive example is the Catalan Integral Cooperative (See TSW: 2017B) which provides many goods and services to many hundreds of people, while emphatically refusing to have anything to do with the capitalist market system or the state.

But back to how might Stage 2 goals be achieved. The core element in TSW transition theory/hope is that as the depression sets in and the supermarket shelves thin out people will recognize that their town must get those basic inputs from the national economy. Even if a town succeeds remarkably in cutting consumption, living frugally, sharing and building the capacity of the local economy to provide, it will realize it can’t survive long without lots of imported items. This will generate powerful demands from the towns on government to dramatically reorganise and restructure the national economy so that it redirects productive capacity towards providing the local economies with the (few) basic inputs they must have.

This is similar to what happens in wartime. Governments suddenly find that they must go heavily “socialist”, regulating, subsidizing, banning, relocating, rationing, phasing out whole industries and setting up new ones; so it is doable. We have to hope and work for widespread realization that this macro-economic restructuring must be done, and the coming break down will help us with this “educational” task.

But the situation will be far more difficult than in World War 2, where there was no energy problem and no threat to the basic economy driven by growth and market forces, and indeed and the new directions generated vast profits for the corporate sector (e.g. by transferring car production to tank production.) This time the restructuring will involve the phasing out of most industry. Remember the magnitude of the overshoot … we must de-grow to maybe 1/10 of present levels of production and consumption. And this will not be a matter of choice and most of it will not need to be done by heavy-handed government. The mother of all depressions will do much of the job, sending most firms bankrupt through lack of resources, energy and demand. Possibly the biggest task for national governments will be enabling the establishment of many new rural settlements to take in the many who no longer have jobs producing vast amounts of frivolous consumer rubbish.

Summary

All of my above theorizing might be totally mistaken. But theorizing like this is absolutely crucial, and the Transition Towns movement isn’t doing it. Many have a very different theory of transition to that sketched above; many think nothing can be done until the capitalist system is overthrown and this will probably involve a lot of violence, Fotopoulos ridicules Marxists but thinks all energy should go into re-gaining national sovereignty and dumping policies imposed by the transnational elite so we are then in a position to decide what kind of society we want. Most green people seem to think getting more green politicians elected can achieve planet-saving legislative change. These differing theories have very different implications as to where our scarce energies should be directed. The Marxists think Transition Towns people are wasting their time. The typical green thinks Marxists are wasting their time. I think the greens are wasting their time. It should be obvious that we urgently need more thinking about how Stage 2 of this revolution can be achieved and what you and I should be trying to do to advance it.

To summarise what I would like to see people in the movement do:

  • Talk about and debate these issues, at least a whole lot more.
  • Clarify your goals. I hope you emphatically decide the ultimate one is to model and start moving us to a globally sustainable and just society.
  • Focus attention on the claim that a good society must be extremely different to this one, requiring the eventual scrapping of some of its core institutions and systems. Or do you think your goals can be achieved within this society i.e., via some reformed version that is still driven by growth, or market forces or the quest for “high living standards”.
  • Give much attention to the logic of strategy; what should we be doing here and now because it will eventually lead to our ultimate goals.
  • Especially, encourage thought and discussion about the Stage 2 goals, and about how Stage 1 activities can contribute to their eventual achievement of the necessary Stage 2 national and global restructuring, i.e., to a zero-growth and non-market driven new economy.
  • Think about my argument that the crucial sub-goal or turning point is the emergence of a determination to take control of your town’s fate, by collectively developing your own Economy B.

References

Marshall, A. P., and D. W. (Oneill, (2018), The “Bristol Pound; A tool for localisation?”, Ecological Economics,146, 273-81.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.11.002

The Transition Team, (2016), The Essential Guide To Doing Transition. Totnes, Devon.


TSW (2017a), The Limits to Growth
, thesimplerway.info/LIMITS.htm

TSW (2017b), The Catalan Integral Cooperative. thesimplerway.info/CATALAN.htm

TSW (2018a), The Simpler Way; Main outline. thesimplerway.info/Main.htm

Trainer, T., (2016), “A critique of Leigh Phillips’ assertion of the Tech-Fix Eco-modernist faith”, Resilience, 7th April.

Trainer, T., (2017), Remaking Settlements, thesimplerway.info/Remaking.htm

Trainer , T., (2018), “Comparing the monetary, resource and ecological costs of industrial and Simpler Way local production: Consider egg supply.” Thesimplerway.info/EGGS.htm

The Simpler Way: Action and Research Priorities – Ted Trainer

pigface3The basic global sustainability problem involves two gigantic mistakes, the first is to do with the fact that this society involves levels of production and consumption that cannot be kept up much longer let alone be spread to all people, and the second with an economic system based on growth and the market mechanism. When the magnitude of the overshoot is understood it is clear that the problems cannot be solved unless there is enormous de-growth down to perhaps 10% of present economic output and per capital resource consumption.  This cannot be done unless enough people a) understand that it must be done, and b) want to do it.  This sets the action tasks and the kinds of research needed by people who understand the predicament.

We need to think carefully about what to apply very scarce resources to. There are many aspects of the situation that do not need further study. We know quite enough about the nature of many of the problems. What we most urgently need to focus on is finding what strategies and policies are likely to increase readiness to move to the required simper lifestyles and systems, and on beefing these up.

Following are some thoughts on possible lines of inquiry and action research.

Literature reviews might reveal that useful answers to some of these questions already exist.

Focus group and survey studies of ideas and attitudes.

This is to do with individual ideas, understandings, beliefs and attitudes and values, and how best to influence them. Unless we know what people are thinking we will not know what messages to focus on. We need to explore questions such as:

  • What do people think about the limits situation; do they realise how serious it is but feel powerless? Do they not care much?
  • To what extent is the general failure/refusal to act explicable in terms of busy lives and preoccupation with struggle to get by?
  • Do people think it is up to governments and agencies to solve the problems, not them?
  • Do they think that the problems could be solved by individuals adopting greener lifestyles, e.g., recycling more?
  • Do they see the distinction between personal lifestyle change and system change?
  • Do they think the problems can be solved without reduction in their “living standards”?
  • How strong is the belief that tech-fix solutions can/will solve the problems, eliminating the need for de-growth?
  • Which demographics are the best to focus on to try to change ideas or to recruit activists?
  • How do they see the general simpler way perspective. Do they see that it must be adopted? Do they believe it is not going to be taken seriously? Do they think it is unworkable, and/or unattractive?
  • How persuasive are videos of eco-village life etc., illustrations of how nice life could be? What are the best educational strategies?
  • What do studies of this general kind indicate re the best ways to go about persuading people? Is it best to focus on threats and dangers ahead, or on the positive messages re the way things could be? What themes are to be avoided? What approaches seem most likely to persuade people to at least agree that some kind of simpler way needs to be accepted?
  • Is there a strong tendency to denial and delusion; to opt to believe that the problems are not so big, or to ignore them…or is it that most people are fairly rational and realistic about the seriousness of the situation?

Studies of whole communities, towns.

The goal here is to explore how we might go about slowly encouraging a town or suburb to move towards being a highly self sufficient and self-governing community focused on collective action, frugal ways and non-material satisfactions etc. The approach might be to look for towns with a degree of cohesion and community self-help, but struggling in the global economy and with a high unemployment rate.  A public meeting might begin with a brief low-key sketch of our limits perspective and solution, explaining how the town could help us develop an effective strategy and stressing how important we think this  project is. The hope is that a small group of locals might be keen to form an embryonic Community Development Cooperative to explore what might be possible in their town.

Townspeople would have to be in charge; no good outsiders coming in to tell them what to do, but we would assist and advise and try to get them to take on the kinds of ventures we are most keen to see tried.

Development of “educational” materials.

The eco-village and transition towns movements have been very unsatisfactory at spreading awareness of the merits of their ways. Far more effort needs to go into making effective documentaries etc., especially portrayals of how good life could be in an alternative simpler way society.  We need R and D on finding which accounts are most effective in impressing people. Should we concentrate on videos, is there a place for written/academic accounts, do media gurus have most effect, what materials are best to get into teachers’ hands…?

It is likely that positive messages will be more effective than negative and scary ones. Bad news about where we are heading is essential but too much of it is likely to lead to paralysis. It needs to be mixed with enthusiastic demonstrations of the solutions. Early on we need review effort put into seeing whether the attitude change literature can assist us.

Exploration of possible transition pathways for macro level political and economic systems.

The transition can only grow out of the small scale local initiatives currently gaining momentum within the Transition Towns movement. The changes needed to solve the big global problems will not be made from the top; governments, authorities and elites will not do other than try to preserve the growth and affluence trajectory.

But unfortunately no thought is being given to how the things happening at the local level could eventually lead to massive and radical macro transformations. These must eventually include managing a maybe 90% de-growth, preventing many functions and all the important ones from being made by the market, taking control of finance away from private banks and corporations,  redirecting the economy to meeting needs as distinct from making profits…i.e., how capitalism might be eliminated and replaced by a sustainable and just macro-economy.  And, how we can eventually “take the state”; that is how might rule by distant top-down, authoritarian, centralised agencies eventually be devolved down to local levels … that is to the basic Anarchist model, including local participatory democratic control of those few functions which need to remain at a broader/state level.

These tasks will involve extremely difficult and complex processes whereby many massive systems are phased down while transferring people and resources to others, most obviously from industrialised, urbanized, centralised, energy-expensive, high-tech and professional-ridden systems to totally different lifestyles and systems in small scale collectivist local communities geared to sustainability and quality of life and with no concern with accumulating wealth.

Again no thought seems to being given to this intimidating mountain of problems, from the localism beginning point. We need to think hard about possible ways of eventually tackling them, especially about what not to do.  For instance, no concept of working for crash or sudden revolutionary change makes any sense to me.  The focal concerns must be, firstly to find ways that people and resources could be gradually moved out of those industries that will disappear and into local economies in which maybe only 10% of the previous amount of conventional (dollar based) economic activity is going on. How can we organize the non-chaotic elimination of 90% of economic activity? How can much activity now taking place in terms of dollar values be moved into the non-dollar realm involving voluntary working bees, gift exchange, free fruit from community orchards, giving away surpluses, free leisure opportunities…? Everyone will be becoming much materially poorer, and many owners of capital will find that their capital is worthless (mainly because their factories will be going bankrupt through lack of resources and demand.) How can they best be moved into utterly different roles in utterly different economies … in which the average paid work week might be two days? Disputes about the inequality of adjustments and burdens are likely to be extremely difficult to deal with (…and one of the industries most likely to be unaffordable is the legal industry.) Remember that the process will be greatly assisted by the coming breakdown in existing systems. Hopefully the owners of capital will realise that the old game is up; good business can no longer be done and most of their assets will be written off by the onset of the permanent depression.

Such enormous and difficult changes will not be accepted and cannot succeed unless a) it is generally understood that they have to be made because adhering to the old ways will rapidly lead to chaos, b) people can see that the new ways are attractive.

The attitude to all this within the Transition Towns movement is totally unsatisfactory. It is, just ignore these questions, don’t think about how the things we are doing are going to eventually bring about the crucial global system changes … just get down to the community garden and plant some more cabbages.  In fact this “just do something anything” strategy is explicitly proclaimed, evident in the title of one of the movements’ gospels, The Power of Just Doing Stuff: How Local Action Can Change the World. Their newsletters and other literature refuse to discuss how the activities enthused about at length are supposed to do what centuries of strategic thinking and hard work and fighting at barricades have failed to do.

The red-left understandably sees the movement as laughable, primarily because it deliberately will not discuss the source of the problems, i.e., capitalism. Some Trans Tons “leaders” argue that the concern here is to avoid politics and conflict and to be positive, but this does not deal with the fact that you must think carefully about the cause of the predicament, and get some correct answers, if you are to see what needs doing, and to have any hope of solving it.  The left would say that all that community gardening will come to nothing if it does not somehow confront and get rid of capitalism. At least the red left has a strategy, a line of reasoning as to what must be done and how it would fix the planet. They would say capitalism couldn’t care less about the gardening, and such things will only develop to the point where a relatively few are enjoying growing their cabbages rather than buying them, … while remaining obliged to go into the global economy to purchase most of what they want, from global corporations.  So they would see the many thousands in the Transition Towns movement as inexcusably deluding themselves and wasting their time. We need to give far more attention to trying to think out what the right perspective and strategies are.

This area includes the debates between Socialist and Anarchist approaches. For instance the Socialist focuses on trying to get state power early on, whereas the Anarchist thinks this is a mistake and can only be done very late in the revolution, because this revolution is unlike any other in that it is essentially  cultural and when ideas and values have been transformed the restructuring of power, the state, the economy will follow easily and quickly.( The detail is at thesimplerway.info/TRANSITION.htm.)

So, a major research domain is to grapple with these high-level theoretical issues, to see if we can throw some light on how the present localism can connect with and lead to history’s greatest ever revolutionary transformation. We need to at least try to think out possibilities here, and try to work out the most promising path to work for. Otherwise there is little or no point in beavering away at feel-good green campaigns just believing/hoping that someday it will all somehow result in a sustainable and just world.

 

George Monbiot’s Out of the Wreckage: A friendly critique.

By monbiotTed Trainer

Few have made a more commendable contribution to saving the planet than George Monbiot. His recent book, Out of the Wreckage, continues the effort and puts forward many important ideas…but I believe there are problems with his diagnosis and his remedy.

The book is an excellent short, clear account of several of the core faults in consumer-capitalist society, and the alternatives advocated are admirable.  George’s focal concern is the loss of community, and the cause is, as we know, neo-liberalism. He puts this in terms of the “story” that dominates thinking. Today the taken for granted background story about society is that it is made of competitive, self-interest-maximizing individuals, and therefore our basic institutions and processes are geared to a struggle to accumulate private wealth, rather than to encouraging concern for each other and improving the welfare of all. Thatcher went further, instructing us that there is not even any such thing as society, only individuals. George begins by rightly contradicting such vicious nonsense, pointing out that humans are fundamentally nice, altruistic, caring and cooperative, but we have allowed these dispositions to be overridden primarily by an economic system that obliges us to behave differently.

He gives heavy and convincing documentation of- this theme. Chapters 1 and 2 deal with several indicators of the sad state of affairs.  “ … this age of atomization  breeds anxiety, discontent and unhappiness.” (p. 18.) “An epidemic of loneliness is sweeping the world.” (p. 16.) Chapter 3 deals with the way neoliberalism has caused the social damage that has accumulated over the last forty years.

But my first concern with the book is that disastrous as it is, neo-liberalism isn’t the main problem confronting us and likely to destroy us.  The main problem is sustainability.  George does refer to this briefly and rather incidentally (e.g., p. 117) and again it seems to me that what he says is correct… it’s just that he doesn’t deal adequately with the magnitude or centrality of the problem or it’s extremely radical implications.

I need to elaborate here.  Few seem to grasp that the “living standards” enjoyed in rich countries involve per capita use rates for resources and environmental impact are around ten times those that all people expected to be living on earth by 2050 could have.  For fifty years now a massive “limits to growth” literature has been accumulating. For instance the Australian per capita use of productive land is 6 – 8 ha, so if the almost 10 billion people expected to be living on the planet by 2050 were to live as we do now, up to 80 billion ha would be needed.  But there are only about 8 billion ha of productive land available on the planet and at present loss rates more than half will be gone by 2050. Many other areas, such as per capita minerals use, also reveal the largely unrecognized magnitude of the overshoot. (For a summary of the situation see TSW: The Limits to Growth.)

The inescapable implication is that we in rich countries should accept the need to shift to lifestyles and systems which involve enormous reductions in resource use and ecological impact.  A De-growth movement recognizing this has now emerged. Yet the supreme goal in this society remains economic growth, i.e., increasing production, consumption, sales, and GDP without limit. To refuse to face up to the absurdity of this, which is what almost everyone does, is to guarantee the onset of catastrophic global breakdown within decades.

Thus the sustainability problem cannot be solved unless we abandon affluence and growth (…the title of my 1985 book.)  Just getting rid of neo-liberal doctrine and exploitation is far from sufficient.  Even a perfect socialism ensuring equity for all would bring on just about the same range of global problems as that we face now if the goal was affluence for all.

When all this is understood it is clear that the solution has to be transition to some kind of “Simpler Way”.  That is, there can be no defensible option but to shift to lifestyles and systems that involve extremely low per capita throughput.  This cannot be done unless there is also historically unprecedented transition to new economic, political and value systems. Many green people fail to grasp the magnitude of the change required; reforming a system that remains driven by market forces, or growth or the desire for wealth cannot do it. Just getting rid of capitalism will not be enough; the change in values is more important and difficult than that. Yet we advocates of simplicity have no doubt that our vision could be achieved while providing a very high quality of life to everyone.  (For a detailed account of how thing might be organised see TSW: The Alternative.)

George doesn’t seem to grasp the significance of the limits, the magnitude of the overshoot, or therefore the essential nature of the sustainability problem and its extremely radical implications.  Above all he does not stress the need to happily embrace extremely frugal “lifestyles”. Sustainability cannot be achieved unless the pursuit of affluence as well as the dominance of neo-liberalism ceases, and he therefore does not deal with what is in fact the main task for those wishing to save the planet; i.e., increasing general awareness that a Simpler Way of some kind must be taken. George does not discuss the simplicity theme.

This has been a criticism in terms of goals. I think the book also has a problem regarding means.  The book is primarily about politics.  It is a sound critique of the way the present decision making system works for the rich and of the need for us to take control of it into our hands via localism. But George is saying in effect, ”Let’s get out there and build community and take control and then we can fix things.” Unfortunately I think that advice is based on a questionable analysis of the situation and of how to fix it.

My case requires some discussion of what I see as perhaps the book’s major problem, which is to do with the nature of community, more accurately with the conditions required for it to exist or come into existence. Again George’s documentation of the sorry state of community today is to be applauded.  But I think his strategic recommendations mostly involve little more than a plea for us to just come together and commune, as if we have made the mistake of forgetting the importance of community and all would be well if we just woke up and knocked on our neighbour’s door.

Firstly George’s early pages give us powerful reasons to believe that such “voluntaristic” steps are not going to prevail against the massive and intensifying forces at work driving out community.  Economic reality gives most people no choice but to function as isolated, struggling, stressed, time-poor, insecure individuals competing against all others to get by, having to worry about unemployment, the mortgage and now the robots. Mobility obliges the individual to move through several careers in a lifetime, “development” eliminates stable neighbourhoods and rips up established support networks. Developers and councils prosper most when high rise units are thrown up everywhere, and the resulting land prices weigh against allocating space to a diverse landscape of mini-farms and firms and community gardens and leisure facilities likely to increase human interaction. Smart phones preoccupy with trivia and weaken parental control. Commerce and councils takes over functions families and neighbourhoods once performed for themselves, making us into privatized customers with fewer social responsibilities.  People understandably retreat to TV and IT screens for trivial distraction, and to drugs and alcohol. No surprise that the most common illnesses now are reported to be depression and loneliness.

Just ask yourself what proportion of national productive capacity and investment is explicitly targeted to building cohesive and mutually supportive communities … try finding that line item in the Budget Papers. Now how much goes into trying to increase business turnover and consumption. I rest my case.  George is more aware of all this than most of us but he falls far short of explaining how it can be overcome … or that it can be overcome. In my firm view it cannot be overcome until the capitalist system and several other unacceptable things have been scrapped, and that will take more than knocking on your neighbour’s door.

More important than recognizing the opposing forces, George’s recommendations for action seem to me to be based on a questionable understanding of community, leading to mistaken ideas about how to create it.  As I see it community is most important for a high quality of life, but it is strange, very complicated, and little understood.  It involves many intangible things including familiarity, a history of interactions, close personal relations, habits and customs, a sense of common interests and values, helping and being helped, giving and receiving, sharing, lending, debt, gratitude, reciprocity, trust, reliability, shared tasks, resilience, concern for the community and readiness to act collectively to achieve common goals.  It is analogous to an ecosystem, a network of established dynamic interrelationships in which a myriad of components meshing spontaneously contribute to the “health” of the whole …  without which the components couldn’t do their thing.  But the community ecosystem also involves consciousness, of others and of the whole, and it involves attitudes and bonds built by a history of interactions.  This history has established the values and dispositions that determine the communal behavior of individuals and groups. Community is a “property” that emerges from all this.

Community is therefore not a “thing” that can be set up artificially at a point in time, nor is it a property or ingredient that can be added like curry powder or a coat of paint.  It cannot be brought in or installed by well-intentioned social workers, council officers or government agencies.  It is about deep-seated ideas, memories, feelings, habits and social bonds. It therefore has almost nothing to do with money and economists can tell us almost nothing about it. You could instantly and artificially raise the “living standards” of a locality just by adding dollars, but you can’t just add social bonds. They can only grow over time, and under the right conditions. George explains clearly why neo-liberalism eliminates those conditions – my problem is that he doesn’t explain how to get them back and he proceeds as if it is simply a matter of individual will or choice, of volunteering to go out and connect. As I see it we won’t get far until social conditions make us connect. George’s urging will prompt some few to make the effort, and he refers to many admirable initiatives underway including community gardens, local currencies and cooperatives. I see these “Transition Towns” ventures as extremely important and George is right to encourage people to get involved in them. They are the beach-heads, establishing the example local institutions that must eventually become the norm and that people will be able turn to when the crunch comes, but I do not think they will grow beyond the point where a relatively few find them attractive … until macro conditions change dramatically.

Here is a brief indication of how Simpler Way transition theory sees it.

There is now no possibility of heading off an extremely serious multifactorial global breakdown.  For instance, greenhouse gas emissions would have to be reduced at maybe 8% p.a., and yet they are rising.  Renewable energy would have to replace fossil fuels in a few decades … but presently it contributes only 1.5% of world energy use. There are strong reasons to think that oil will become very scarce within ten years. (See Ahmed, 2017.) Global debt levels are so high now and rising so fast that the coming CFC 2.0 will dwarf the previous GFC1. Did you know that global insect populations have suddenly begun to plunge? Forget about your white rhino, it’s the little fellows at the base of food chains that really matter. Need I go on.

There are many other accelerating problems feeding into what Mason (2003) described as the coming 2030 spike. What we have to pray for is a slow-onset terminal depression, not a sudden one, giving people time to wake up and realize that we must move to The Simpler Way.  The Transition Towns movement is the beginning of this but I do not think it will really take off until the supermarket shelves thin out.  Then people will be forced to come together in their suburbs and towns to work out how they can build cooperative local self-sufficiency. They will realize this must be done collectively, that the market must be prevented from determining what happens, and above all that the competitive quest for wealth is suicidal and that frugal “lifestyles” must be embraced. In other words, if we are lucky and the breakdown in global systems is not too rapid, the coming conditions of intense scarcity will force us to create local economies, committees, cooperatives, working bees, commons etc. … and these conditions will produce community … out of the wreckage.

But community is not the crucial goal. What matters most at this early stage of this revolution is people coming together to take collective control of their town, that is, to go beyond setting up a local swap shop here, a community orchard there a cooperative bakery somewhere else, and to start asking questions like, “What are our most urgent needs in this town … bored teenagers, homeless people, lonely older people, too few leisure activities…well let’s get together to start fixing the problems.” Essential to The Simpler Way vision is citizens in direct participatory control of their own situation, i.e., the classic Anarchist form of government.  The big global problems cannot be solved any other way because only settlements of this kind can get the resource and ecological impacts right down while providing well for all.  For thousands of years people have taken for granted being governed. That is not just political immaturity, it is not viable now. Distant, central agencies like the state cannot run the kinds of settlements that will enable per capita resource rates to be decimated. These can only be run by conscientious, cooperative citizens aware of their local needs and keen to work together to build and maintain their own local water, energy, agricultural, social etc. systems. (There will still be a remnant role for central agencies.)

In TSW: The Transition it is argued that this taking of control at the town level must be seen as the beginning of a process that in time could lead to revolutionary change at the level of the national and international economies, and of the state itself. As townspeople realize they must prevent the global economy from determining their fate and as they find they must build their power to take control of their own situation they will increasingly pressure state policies to be geared primarily to facilitating local economic development…and in time they will replace state power by citizen assemblies.

The activities and projects George advocates could be most important contributors to this process, but I don’t think they will add up to the required revolution unless they are informed by a basically Anarchist vision whereby people come to understand that the main goal is not a town containing nice things like community orchards, nor indeed one with robust community, but a town we run on principles of frugal, cooperative, needs-focused, local self-sufficiency.

Ahmed, N. M., (2017), Failing States, Collapsing Systems, Dordrecht, Springer.

Mason, C., (2003), The 2030 Spike, Earthscan Publications.

Monbiot, G., (2018), Out of the Wreckage: A New Politics for an Age of Crisis, London, Verso.

TSW: The Limits to Growth, thesimplerway.info/LIMITS.htm

TSW: The Alternative, thesimplerway.info/THEALTSOCLong.htm

TSW: The Transition.  thesimplerway.info/TRANSITION.htm

The challenge of Climate Justice – Talk at Melbourne Anarchist Bookfair 2016

How do we achieve climate justice? It’s a profound and complex question. But in another sense its disarmingly simple. All we have to do is rapidly decarbonise the economy – right? In 2014 it was calculated the global economy needs to decarbonise at 6.2 percent a year, more than five times faster than the current rate, every year from now till 2100. A tall order, but the solutions are simple –  right? After all, to dramatically cut our emissions we just have to rapidly move to 100% renewable energy and do things a little bit more efficiently. It’s just those damn fossil fuel companies and their crony fossil addicted governments who stand in the way – right?

If only! How I wish this comforting story was true.  At best it’s a simplistic one; at worst its an outright delusion –  but one we are all too willing to believe. In truth, to defuse the climate crisis, as well as the wider eco-justice crisis of which it is just one part, we have to engage in a process of organised, egalitarian, de-growth. That is, a historically unprecedented economic contraction and reorganisation of the economy. Obviously capitalism can’t do this. Capitalism has a growth compulsion built into its very fabric. So we will need to embrace some kind of socialism– albeit a totally reconceived version from the industrial-consumer-hierarchical-20th century brand and, we hope, with a strong anarchist twist. But the task is not just to scrap capitalism. Sorry, this revolution is much bigger and more challenging than that. Among other things, we will need to radically localise economies and settlements. Substantially de-urbanize. Embrace simpler, more frugal lifestyles. And, of course, all that implies profound and far reaching cultural change. It need not be a matter of extreme sacrifice to save the planet. There is a strong case the quality of life could be improved for most people within well designed and run new local settlements. Imagine, for example, having a lot of free time, because you only work for money about 2 days a week, thus having much time for arts, crafts, gardening, home-making, learning, personal development. Or thriving within a highly supportive and friendly local community. But while the benefits could be rich, what is certain is that sustainability will not make us wealthier – in fact total wealth and income will be greatly reduced.

How we achieve these huge changes is beyond my scope today. It’s a big subject, which I still grapple with. But, however we do it, that is the task. By the way, do you still want climate justice?  Or do people only want climate justice if they get to keep consumer affluence and convenience? I’m challenging you to consider that we cannot have both.

But, I sense some of you are not convinced. Why can’t green-growth, renewable energy, techno-fixes and smarter, efficient practices solve this crisis? Let me, very briefly spell out four fundamental reasons why not.

The first reason why renewables can’t save capitalism is that they won’t be scaled up in time – unless you also dramatically cut energy demand. The experts predict they will need to roughly double energy supply from current use – and, remember, that is assuming a world of grotesque inequality. You will probably need at least six times today’s energy to provide all 9 billion with a Brunswick lifestyle. But let’s take the more moderate goal. How do you double energy demand, at the same time as massively cutting back on fossil fuels, as we so urgently need to do to reach the 2 degree target? Answer: you have to massively, and I mean massively, scale up renewable energy. But here’s the thing: on the scale needed and the time we have, it won’t happen. While the modern renewables are growing fast, they still only account for 1.3% of rise and fallworldwide primary energy . But big energy transitions take decades; they don’t happen overnight. In their excellent book “the rise and fall of carbon civilization” (2011) Patrick Moriarty and Damon Honnery show that to meet the 2 degree target and provide for expected energy growth, 2050 wind power would have to supply “twice the most optimistic estimates’ by authoritative bodies such as the Global Wind energy council (Moriarity & Honniery, 2011: 182). Solar thermal would have to scaled up ‘four orders of magnitude over current use,’ (i.e 10,000 times) which would be ‘many times greater than even the most ambitious solar farm schemes being discussed for the world’s deserts’ (Moriarity & Honniery, 2011: 182). And this is even after factoring in optimistic assumptions for take up of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), and nuclear energy. Instead, these experts argue that our only hope is to actively reduce total global energy use 9 (from i.e 500 EJ to 300 EJ), from current levels – the exact opposite of what all governments, global institutions and even green NGOs are planning! And remember, capitalism doesn’t like reductions…

The second reason why the renewable revolution is insufficient is that wind and solar, only produce electricity from stationary power – and that’s a small part of the overall GHG problem. Globally speaking, electricity only makes up roughly 1/5 of world energy use. The other 4/5 comes from a whole variety of sources including transport, industry and heating. So even if tomorrow we moved to 100% renewable electricity, we would only have addressed 1/5 of the problem. Well, you say, let’s just electrify everything and run it on renewables! Well, maybe you could do that for some things like cars and heaters, but it will be difficult for big trucks and aeroplanes. And even if we did that, as John Hinkson points out, we would still have only dealt with 70% of the problem. That’s because the burning of fossil fuels only accounts for about 70% of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The remaining 30% comes from a number of causes, including deforestation, the degradation of soil caused by industrial agriculture and the methane generated by livestock farming.

Thirdly, even if we address all these issues and move to 100% renewable energy, then there is a very strong case that we are going to have to get by on far less net energy. Why? I am no expert, but from what I understand there are two fundamental reasons. First, because, today, renewables receive a huge, but hidden, fossil fuel subsidy. Think, for example, of all the fossil energy it takes to create a single wind-farm. Oil-based combustion engines are used from start to finish, to mine the material to make the windmills, fabricate them, and deliver the components to the installation site. Then you need to make and pour the enormous amount of concrete needed, and run the required maintenance vehicles. But what happens when we have phased out fossil fuels, as we must? Will renewables be able to reproduce themselves and provide enough energy for society? I think they can, but not as much energy as fossil fuels have provided. Recent estimates suggest that the energy return on solar PV in Spain is only 2.45:1, when reasonable estimates are made of all the energy inputs that go into to making a solar panel. Historically fossil fuels provided us with well above 20 units of net energy – though this ratio is fast declining as we desperately frack and deep sea mine our fast depleting fossil bounty. And there is a second problem with renewables. They are intermittent – the sun does not always shine and the wind blow. This is a big drawback. To overcome it, you either have to build huge amounts of backup plant or work out how to store electricity on an industrial scale – something the science techies do not yet know how to do. In any case, a renewable energy system will be costly. And a costly energy system, means there will be less capital left over for cars, i-phones, big-screen TVs and Pokémon. So renewables won’t sustain “green-growth”.

But my fourth and final point is the real kicker. Suppose I am wrong and we can indeed decarbonise capitalism. What then? I’ll tell you what then – we would still be faced with a huge and ever worsening eco-justice predicament. As Steb Fisher has said, “our sustainability problems didn’t start and won’t stop with climate change”. With all that economic growth, and therefore energy growth, we would still be rapidly deforesting, over-fishing,chemical polluting, degrading the soil and destroying precious habitat. And, according to a report from the CSIRO, there would still be six billion people excluded from the consumer class – you can bet they won’t be peacefully celebrating “green capitalism” to the end of history.

To be clear, and to conclude, we must move to a society run on renewables. We must do this as fast as possible. But for all the above reasons, we will monumentally fail, if we try to do so via mere reforms within our current socio-economic system. Instead we need to build a big, forceful, global, new society movement, demanding  de-growth! Demanding a simpler way! And yes demanding Climate Justice! And not just demanding it, but building and demonstrating the new ways at the grassroots. Our chances may seem slim, but we must try. Needless to say, the situation is urgent. We have no time to waste.

 

Why we should reject the CSIRO’s ‘Sustainable’ Growth Scenario

The CSIRO has put out a National Outlook Report (NOR), which claims Australia – and indeed the world– can almost triple GDP by 2050 and increase affluent ‘living standards’, while at the same time significantly reducing environmental impacts.

But although the reports findings are likely to be widely accepted – and has already received positive reviews – thoughtful people have ample reason to be critical. I encourage readers to look at Dr Ted Trainer’s review of the paper, which highlights many reasons for skepticism. The most serious being that, in fact, the report does not explicitly state the reasons and assumptions underpinning its key, highly questionable, claim – i.e. that Australia could, if it chooses, massively decouple economic growth from environmental/resource impacts.

My criticism of the report is more basic. It only took me a cursory reading to reject it, simply because I don’t accept the basic assumptions underpinning all 20 of the reports future 2050 scenarios. In my view there are at least three assumptions, all of which crucially undermine its basic claims about ‘sustainability’.

Assumption 1: The Global Economy will face no resource supply constraints to 2050

This is a highly challengeable assumption. For example, a recent peer reviewed paper estimating ultimately recoverable resources of fossil fuel resources, including unconventional, found that total fossil fuel supplies are likely to peak around 2025, with the only uncertainty being how fast they decline thereafter (in the ‘high’ estimate, they plateau until 2050). If these findings are even close to the mark, then fossil fuel supplies – the lifeblood of the capitalist growth economy – may well face major constraints before 2050.

Dr Graeme Turner, himself a former CSIRO staffer, certainly thinks this is possible. Turner has shown that all current indicators have us on track with the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario of the famous 1972 Limits to Growth report. The BAU scenario, Turner warns, results in catastrophic collapse of the global economy by the middle of the 21st century. The key driver of collapse in the BAU scenario is, again, mounting energy supply costs – the very factor that appears to have been overlooked by the CSIRO. To put it mildly, if the BAU scenario turns out to be on track, then the world in 2050 – including Australia – will look very different to any of the CSIROs 20 scenarios.

Faulty Assumption 2: The world can continue to increase energy supply and mitigate global warming.

All 20 scenarios in the CSIRIO report assume at least a doubling of global and Australian energy supply. But there is a very strong case this is totally incompatible with achieving the “safe” 2-degree climate threshold.

In their book the ‘rise and fall of carbon civilisation‘ Patrick Moriarty and Damon Honnery show that decarbonizing at the rate needed, while energy growth continues, even at ‘carbon constrained’ levels (i.e to 850 EJ by 2050, up from present 550 EJ), would be unachievable. It would involve, they argue, an implausible scaling up of renewable energy technologies – particularly solar and wind – even when optimistic assumptions have been made about the potential of Coal Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and nuclear technologies. It should be remembered that today solar and wind energy account for a mere 0.4% of final world energy supply (IEA, 2015). But to effectively decarbonize the growth economy by 2050 these technologies would need to supply more than half of world energy. This would involve a level of investment far beyond even the most optimistic projections for these technologies. Thus, Moriarity and Honnery argue that the only realistic way for humanity to achieve a safe climate by 2050 is if energy demand, far from doubling, is actually reduced from present levels. Outspoken Climate Scientist, Kevin Anderson, has made a similar claim.

The CSIRO authors might argue that such critics are overlooking the potential for bio-sequestration – i.e. planting trees to sequester carbon, which makes up a large portion of the carbon reductions in their Australian scenarios. But even if this is possible in Australia – and people should read Trainer’s paper for reasons to doubt it – it is unlikely to make much of difference globally given most regions have far lower per-capita land availability than Australia, and pressing global food problems will only intensify in the years ahead, limiting the extent to which land can be used for reforestation.

Faulty Assumption 3: Australia could be ‘sustainable’ while continuing to take more than our fair share of world resources.

All 20 Scenarios take it for granted that in 2050 the world will, as today, be characterized by global apartheid between rich and poor. Figure 5 on p.8 of the report depicts a 2050 global order in which three billion people will form part of the global ‘consumer’ class. The consumer class is defined as those with annual incomes of at least $12,000 U.S – i.e. less than a third of the current Australian per capita income (a ratio that will be larger, if by 2050 Australia trebles its GDP, as the authors assume). This also means there will be another six billion people – i.e. two-thirds of humanity – who will be totally excluded from the ‘consumer’ club!

All globally minded people should reject this state of affairs, and be working for a more just world order. As Saral Sarkar and Bruno Kern put it:

If we do not want to disregard this global horizon, then we cannot avoid the insight that the people of the industrial countries, but also the rich and the middle class of the Third World, with their ecologically unsustainable mode of production and way of life, are participating in a worldwide chauvinistic selection process, which robs others of their chances of survival.

But, even putting aside the demands of justice, the failure of the authors to think about fair shares, crucially undermines their entire ‘sustainability’ case. One only needs to ask, how sustainable would the Australian and/or world economy be if attempts were made to globalize rich world affluence – that is, the implicit or explicit, global ‘development’ goal?

Predictably, the report never attempts to answer this question. Obviously, its most ambitious, and highly questionable, ‘decoupling’ scenarios would be pathetically inadequate. These scenarios assume a factor four reduction in Australian resource use to GDP. But if by 2050 all 9.7 billion people were to have risen to projected Australia per capita income, world GDP would have to multiply by 20 times present levels. In other words, factor 20 (not 4), resource reductions would be required, just to maintain already too high resource consumption levels. Do the CSIRO authors think that is possible? Or, to take another measure, the global 2050 energy supply target would have to be at least trebled for all people to have Australian 2050 per capita energy consumption (i.e. from 850 EJ to 2100 EJ). And yet, as noted above, the 850 EJ target will, in all probability take us well past safe climate levels.

What then is the answer?

Our limits to growth predicament, which the CSIRO has not effectively refuted, suggests that sustainability – true sustainability – requires a multi-dimensional, transformational process of change, which enables the world to greatly reduce current levels of resource/energy consumption. There is a case this could be done, without causing severe deprivation, and indeed improving the quality of life, even in rich countries. But it could not be achieved in any thing like today’s globalized capitalist-consumer society. In other words this type of society needs to be replaced (not reformed) with utterly new/different social order – in both rich and poor countries – based on i.e. intense localism, a new settlement geography, new non-capitalist economy, participatory governance, and very different cultures – what some describe as a Simpler Way.

A letter from Saral Sarkar – New arguments for socialism in the 21st century….

saralsarkarBelow is a letter from prominent eco-socialist Saral Sarkar which I am republishing here. It was written in response to a debate that I was having with a U.S activist who was skeptical (like most) about the need for socialists to advocate for an egalitarian contraction of industrial economies, towards a simpler egalitarian society. Saral’s letter outlines four critical reasons why this is, today, necessary.

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